French presence in the Sahel: how does the Élysée organize the end of Operation Barkhane?


William Molinié, edited by Solène Leroux with AFP

While the military junta in power yesterday asked the French ambassador to leave Mali, the question of the French presence in Mali arises more than ever. Head of State Emmanuel Macron chaired a defense council on Tuesday morning, in particular on the future of Operation Barkhane.

DECRYPTION

Tuesday morning, Emmanuel Macron convened a defense council devoted to the international situation. About the Ukrainian crisis first, but also with regard to this renewed tension with Mali, after the decision of the military junta in power to expel the French ambassador. The ambassador, Joël Meyer, has three days to leave the country. The Malian authorities have justified this decision by recent “hostile” statements by French officials against them. France takes note of this referral. What consequences can this diplomatic quarrel have on the presence of French forces in the country, in other words Operation Barkhane?

Troop relief in progress

It’s an uncomfortable situation for the armies because the French soldiers cannot stop the fighting overnight. On the contrary, hiding in Gao, the epicenter of military logistics in the Sahel, would be to lock yourself in a trap and expose yourself to terrorist attacks. So Barkhane started a reduction process: there are 4,800 French soldiers at the moment. The objective is to reduce the contingent to 2,500 in the summer of 2023. But leaving Mali is a political decision. It belongs only to Emmanuel Macron, the army chief.

Where to install the European Takuba force?

In the meantime, the option of creating a security bubble around the country is being studied. But then, where to install the bulk of the troops? There is Niger. But the problem is that the country does not want to host Takuba, the European special force. Another possibility, Chad, but it is much further from the combat zone. Whatever the options chosen, Paris wants anyway, for the moment, to maintain in the region an intervention capacity to fight against large-scale jihadist incursions.



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