Full throttle out of the corona crisis ?: "2021 will be an unparalleled auto boom year"

Wednesday December 30th 2020

Full throttle out of the corona crisis?
"2021 will be an unparalleled auto boom year"

The year 2020 ends the automotive industry with losses in sales, turnover, profit and employees – this is due to the Corona crisis. So it can only get better. Auto expert Becker goes even further in an interview with ntv.de and speaks of a "glorious future".

ntv.de: Mr. Becker, the year ending was a memorable one for the automotive industry as a whole, owed to the coronavirus pandemic. Now there is a vaccine. How will the year 2021 be for car manufacturers and suppliers?

Helmut Becker: If there are no other disruptions in the global political and economic system – I repeat and emphasize explicitly – if there are no other disruptions in the world economy, 2021 will be an unparalleled boom year for the auto industry, comparable at best with 1975 after the first oil crisis or 2010 after the crash on the financial markets.

Will 2021 also be a year of transition?

Yes, in any case. After the boom, there is a return to the normal economic trend, normality. Even without the Corona standstill, there has been a lot of need for transformation and innovation in the auto industry due to technical advances at all levels and, above all, due to digitization and the need for new drive technologies. It must now be processed.

It is said that crises also represent opportunities: What do you see for the industry in general and for the German auto industry in particular?

I don't think the president of the VDA industry association, Hildegard Müller, will contradict me: The automotive industry, especially the one in Germany, has been a driver of innovation for the entire world for over 100 years. In Germany, the internal combustion engine was invented and perfected, the spark plug and the electric drive were developed, and so on. Even more important than the inventions themselves: the German auto industry, at the top of a myriad of smart suppliers, was always able and willing to adapt and integrate inventions from other areas of knowledge.

For example?

Electronics, for example. I can still remember exactly what an outcry there was when the long-standing and ingenious CEO of BMW, Eberhard von Kuenheim, was the first to introduce the on-board computer or the three-way catalytic converter for exhaust gas cleaning. At that time, unleaded gasoline was necessary for the three-way catalytic converter. But there was nowhere. The infrastructure first had to be created. What an outcry and complaint about costs. But lo and behold, it worked! I mention this because we are facing similar challenges today with the necessary transition to synthetic fuels, e-fuels.

In 2020 around 3.1 million new cars were registered in Germany. The corona crisis has left its mark. You already mentioned the possible boom year: So a significant increase in demand can be expected?

Yes, we will certainly achieve the "old" 3.5 million registrations from before the crisis. From my point of view there will be even more – provided the markets are allowed to develop normally and without disruptions.

Will China expand its position as the world's largest sales market?

For sure! China is approaching 30 million new registrations. By the way, 90 percent of them are combustion cars.

Nevertheless, some manufacturers have announced several new e-models for 2021. Tesla is building its plant in Grünheide. Will 2021 be an electrifying one? Will the breakthrough of electromobility finally succeed?

You know, electric mobility has been breaking through for so long, and it will continue to do so in 2021. With the offer and the continued existence of the state and stately purchase premiums, which today make up almost a third or up to half of the purchase price, more electric cars will also be sold in 2021. And that's just as well. The problem will be when the queues at the e-pumps jam.

Will the political goal of one million e-cars in Germany be achieved?

Definitely no! Today we have a stock of just 250,000. Then we would have to have new registrations of over 750,000 in 2021. There definitely won't be.

Is there a consolidation in the industry? Will there be mergers?

Yes, there will be further consolidation, I firmly believe that. In which form I would like to leave open. Consolidation does not necessarily have to mean merger, as there are numerous intermediate forms that could all be trimmed towards a win-win situation.

Looking ahead – end of 2021: where will the German automotive industry be? And where is the entire industry?

Assuming capable top management, it will be better and stronger than it is today. With Tesla boss Elon Musk and his plant in Grünheide, the industry on the electric leg will experience a significant boost. At the VDA, the chairs are being moved and the table signs are being brought into shape. From a global perspective, the automotive industry will continue to have a glorious future at the end of 2021. Human mobility continues to increase, not decrease!

Thomas Badtke spoke to Helmut Becker