RRussia’s demand for companies and citizens to pay for its energy exports in rubles is causing great concern among citizens and businesses. The Russians have repeatedly backed up their demand from February with threats of delivery stops. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) even declared the early warning level of the national gas emergency plan on Wednesday.
Against this background, it is not yet entirely clear what to make of Russia’s announcement, which was made a little later, that the ruble compulsion will probably not apply immediately from April 1, but will be implemented step by step.
The Russian Presidential Office announced on Wednesday that Russia will not immediately implement the demanded payment for gas supplies in rubles. The dollar as a global reserve currency has had its day, so payments in the respective national currencies are unavoidable.
With its announcement that it would only want to deliver gas and oil against payment in rubles, Russia had caused a dispute but also triggered a solidarity of the G-7 countries. The alliance of industrialized countries, to which Germany also belongs, had emphasized that it would stick to the treaties and continue to pay in euros or dollars. One does not allow oneself to be blackmailed, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) had affirmed.
The scenario of a delivery stop is therefore not out of the world. The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) warns of “extreme economic consequences” in such a case. In the event of a supply stop, many companies would be primarily affected by shutdowns in the following months,” said DIHK President Peter Adrian on Wednesday, according to a statement. All value chains would be negatively affected. Adrian mentioned the declaration of the early warning level in the gas emergency plan by the federal government in this connection “responsible”.
Anchor products energy and plastics
The DIHK President gave an example of the far-reaching effects of shutting down individual companies: If, for example, a company cannot produce plastic, these preliminary products are also missing in the production of food packaging or medical products. Adrian expects that electricity prices will explode in addition to gas prices. “This would also affect companies that use little or no gas – which is also why the economic effects would be more serious than is often assumed.” The association recommended that the member companies contact the respective gas network operator and deal intensively with the possible consequences of supply bottlenecks.
The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) also fears a loss of oil or gas supplies from Russia. “A short-term and unlimited delivery stop would have massive negative effects not only on the chemical-pharmaceutical industry by autumn at the latest, but also on the entire production network of the industrial country Germany via its function in the value-added chains,” said general manager Wolfgang Große Entrup to the “Münchner “Merkur” ( Wednesday). While oil can be obtained in part from other regions, there is no short-term replacement option for natural gas. In the event of a supply stop, a “severe recession with massive job losses” must be expected in Germany. The chemical and pharmaceutical industries consume large amounts of Oil and gas.