Economist Thomas Philippon, former adviser to Pierre Moscovici at Bercy, professor at New York University, explains that two-thirds of growth today comes from services, health and education, which pollute less than l ‘industry. But growth is, in his eyes, a survival issue for all political regimes.
Do democracies absolutely need economic growth to survive?
Yes, democracies need growth, because growth and purchasing power are the same thing, especially in France, where inequalities have not increased. But growth is a challenge for all political regimes. In China, the government of Xi [Jinping] has his eyes riveted on growth, he knows full well that if it is not there he will be replaced, just like Vladimir Poutin in Russia. It was the lack of growth that caused the collapse of the Soviet Union. Democracies have resisted sluggish growth no less well than authoritarian regimes. Simply, the protest is seen more – authoritarian regimes do not have “yellow vests”. Moreover, the political polarization that we are witnessing in France, and elsewhere in the West, is not only linked to the decline in growth, but also to a feeling of cultural downgrading.
Is the climate crisis threatening the growth of our economies?
Be careful not to mix up growth and energy consumption. Since the 1980s, the growth of GDP and that of energy consumption have been decoupled while they have been evolving in parallel over a long period, both because we consume more services and because we have saved money. ‘energies.
The debate is badly posed. On the one hand, there are those who hide the fact that the transition will be expensive, and who claim that it will create jobs. It will create some but also destroy some, and the balance will undoubtedly be close to zero. On the other hand, the partisans of degrowth confuse the goal and the means. The goal is not degrowth, but to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and protect natural resources. The objective must be to minimize the impact of this objective on growth, while recognizing that there will be a negative impact on the latter, i.e. on purchasing power. If we set a carbon price at 150 euros per tonne, that would have an impact on short-term growth, but we could move forward and invest massively in renewables and look for alternatives.
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