After a year marked by strong concerns about inflation, it is an almost reassuring figure that was published on Tuesday, January 4 by INSEE: consumer prices increased by 2.8% in 2021 in France, which does not reflect an acceleration in December compared to the previous month. Harmonized inflation – which allows European comparisons – stands at 3.4% for the year as a whole, a figure which remains significantly lower than that of the euro area average which was 4.9% in November.
But the analysis of price increases by product shows that price increases are no longer confined to energy, as at the start of September. They are spreading. In December, food prices increased by 1.4%, against 0.5% in November, for example, and only 1% in December 2020. Manufactured products, they increased by 1.2% against 0.8 % in November.
“What worries are the dynamics of inflation, with the impact of increases in production costs on manufactured products”, recognizes Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. This is one of the – rare – convictions of forecasters at the start of the year: contrary to what we imagined in the fall of 2021, inflation is not a cyclical phenomenon linked only to the strong recovery. globally, but looks set to last for at least the first half of 2022. “The vision of a rapidly falling inflation peak is less clear, admits Mathieu Plane, economist at OFCE. From now on, we are more likely to expect robust inflation. “
Ultra-competitive
Moreover, during the truce of the confectioners, while France plunged head first into the Omicron wave, the Swedish furniture giant Ikéa threw a small paving stone in the pond. “Unfortunately, for the first time since higher costs started to affect the global economy, we are going to have to pass some cost increases on to our customers,” announced Ingka Group, the holding company which brings together most of the brand’s stores. As a result, sofas with unpronounceable names or kit shelves should see their prices increase by around 9% on average.
It’s hard to imagine that the Swedish giant, rather renowned for its minimalist labels, going it alone in an ultra-competitive market. A wave of readjustments, which will weigh on households’ wallets, cannot be ruled out. “Until now, companies have absorbed the additional costs related to the prices of raw materials or transport in their accounts, but they are coming to the end of the year”, explains Denis Ferrand, CEO of Rexecode. “The pass-on of price increases to consumers is more in front of us than behind us, particularly with regard to manufactured products and agrifood products. “
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