In Niger, the junta raises the specter of an external intervention to unite the population behind it

In Niamey, the relative calm of the first post-coup days gave way to mobilization in favor of the putschists and the fear of a conflagration. On Sunday July 30, several thousand demonstrators took to the streets of the Nigerien capital as well as those of Tahoua, nearly 400 kilometers to the east, to support the power of the country’s new strongman, General Abdourahamane Tiani. The latter still retains the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, deprived of freedom in his palace since July 26. “Long live the army! Long live Tiani! », « Down with France! », chanted protesters in Niamey in the morning, waving Russian flags.

Around 11 a.m., the tension rose a notch when the marchers, who responded to the call of M62, a civil society movement which had already protested against the French military presence in 2022, headed towards the embassy. of France, where some were convinced that ministers of the regime had taken refuge.

An attempted intrusion into the diplomatic enclave took place, the sign of the embassy was torn down, trampled on and replaced by Russian and Nigerian flags. As during the last coups in Mali in 2020 and Burkina Faso in 2022, in Niger, the demonstration of support for the junta turned into anti-French and pro-Russian protest.

“All necessary measures” will be taken

At the same time, in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, the West African heads of state meeting at the summit of the regional organization, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), displayed a position of great firmness in ordering the economic blockade of Niger and the suspension “immediate” of “all commercial and financial transactions” with this country, while giving the putschists a one-week ultimatum to release and restore Mohamed Bazoum to his post. When this ultimatum expires, “all necessary measures” will be taken and may “include the use of force”, warned the regional body, announcing an immediate meeting of the chiefs of staff of its member countries.

ECOWAS, which has powerlessly witnessed a multiplication of coups d’etat since 2020 with the fall of the Malian, Burkinabe and Guinean presidents, knows that part of the future of democracy in East Africa is currently being played out in Niger. ‘West. “We cannot stand idly by and continue to witness coup after coup (…) We must react with determination and resilience, demonstrating that our commitment to democracy is unwavering”said Bola Tinubu, current president of the West African body.

Will the head of state of Nigeria put words into action after the ultimatum given to the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Fatherland (CNSP), the ruling body of the junta? For now, mediation initiatives are multiplying in Niamey to put an end to this putsch peacefully.

“Finding a negotiated way out of the crisis”

On Sunday, another military leader, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno at the head of Chad, who succeeded his father who died in combat in 2021, met with members of the CNSP, as well as his fallen counterpart, Mohamed Bazoum, and the predecessor of this one, Mahamadou Issoufou. The latter, close to General Tiani whom he appointed head of the presidential guard in 2011, said on Sunday on X, ex-Twitter, that he was also trying on his side to “finding a negotiated way out of the crisis” to reinstate his successor in office and make the head of the junta give in. Unsuccessful so far.

ECOWAS has intervened militarily on several occasions in crises in the region. In 1990 during the civil war in Liberia, in 1997 in Sierra Leone to reinstall an overthrown elected president in power, in 2012 in Guinea-Bissau after the army overthrew the government during the elections. As well as in 2017 in The Gambia to allow the elected president to take office.

While in Niamey, the countdown has started, the Elysée clarified on Sunday that “France supports all regional initiatives” aiming to “the restoration of the constitutional order” and the return of Mohamed Bazoum to the presidency. Criticized in the Sahel for its interference in internal African affairs, France is trying, in Niger, not to appear on the front line but is pushing ECOWAS to adopt a firm position against this pronunciamiento which threatens its interests.

For Paris, Mohamed Bazoum was the last ally in the Sahel with Chad. General Tiani’s coup jeopardizes the future of the French military force established in Niger – around 1,500 soldiers, deployed to help the Nigerien army to fight against armed jihadist groups. A system that Emmanuel Macron had to urgently reorganize after French soldiers were ordered to leave Mali in 2022 and Burkina Faso in January 2023 by the juntas that came to power.

From 500 to 600 French nationals

The discretion desired by the Elysée in the political process in Niger did not prevent the power from stepping up to the plate on Sunday after the attacks perpetrated against its embassy in Niamey. “Anyone attacking French nationals, the army, diplomats and rights of way would see France respond immediately and intractably”warned the French presidency in a press release.

Interviewed the same day on RTL, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, for her part specified that the 500 to 600 French nationals residing in the country “ have all been contacted. Precautionary measures are taken” And “they will be reinforced if necessary, but there is no evacuation decision as I speak to you”she explained.

After holding a defense council on Saturday on the situation in Niger, a few hours after Emmanuel Macron’s return from a week-long tour of Oceania, the Elysée also announced that it was suspending all budgetary aid (120 million euros). euros) in Niamey. President Macron, who spoke on the phone again on Sunday with Mohamed Bazoum, is following the situation hour by hour, but has ruled out any military intervention in Niger for the time being.

In Niamey, the landing of a French military plane Thursday, July 27, on the tarmac of the airport, had plunged the junta into paranoia, making it fear an intervention from Paris. In the process, the CNSP had retaliated by announcing that it was taking “to witness public opinion on the consequences that will flow from any foreign military intervention “.

Two days later, Saturday July 29, it was the turn of ECOWAS to be targeted by the junta. In an attempt to further close ranks around their power on the eve of the summit of West African heads of state, the CNSP this time denounced “a plan of aggression against Niger” in preparation for, “through an imminent military intervention in Niamey”.

Fear of stiffening

As the Malian and Burkinabe juntas did before them in the aftermath of their putsch, these public speeches by the CNSP aimed at presenting Nigeriens with an external enemy who is trying to interfere with the sovereignty of their country have had the effect of uniting a party of the people behind their power. Thus, the unions, the opposition and the M62, which had remained silent the first days following the putsch, called for support for the CNSP, and asked their militants to be ready for new mobilizations.

The ultimatum posed by ECOWAS raises fears of a new stiffening of the junta’s supporters. “These threats will only have the consequence of making us call our militants to the resistance. ECOWAS must let us solve our internal problems. We will not tolerate the interference of any foreign country in Nigerien affairs”, warns Maman Sani Malam Maman, the secretary general of Moden Fa Lumana, the main opposition party in Niger. For him, as for other voices muzzled under the regimes of Issoufou and Bazoum without the international community vigorously defending them, the July 26 coup and the position of firmness displayed by Niger’s partners are also an opportunity to take their revenge.