Inflation may not be back, but rising consumer prices are in the United States. Prices for individuals rose 0.8% in April from March, a record since 2009. Excluding energy and food, prices rose 0.9% last month. This is the strongest increase since 1982.
Over twelve months, they jumped 4.2%, unheard of since September 2008, when the great financial crisis erupted. There is naturally a benchmark effect for these annual figures: in April 2020, the American economy was paralyzed by Covid-19 and confined. Nevertheless, the monthly figure (9.6% at an annual rate, even if this extrapolation does not necessarily make sense) is enough to provoke a debate on the possible overheating of the economy, especially since it is higher than that expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg (+0.2 point).
Americans are flocking to used cars, the price of which has risen 10% in one month – the biggest increase since 1953, according to the Labor Office statement. This figure explains a third of the price increase April. The second-hand market is boosted by the shortage of new cars, due to the lack of microprocessors to assemble them. Their cost is now over $ 25,000 (around 20,600 euros).
At a time when Americans are traveling again, the cost of transportation services has jumped 2.9 percentage points – car rentals have seen their prices soar 16.2%, while those for plane tickets ( + 10.2%) and the hotel industry (+ 8%) are on the rise again. Food prices, to take away or in supermarkets, rose by 0.4 points.
No overheating
On the other hand, that of energy fell by 0.1 point in April, the drop in hydrocarbons being greater than the rise in the cost of electricity. The price of gasoline is expected to soar in May, due to a cyberattack on an East Coast oil pipeline and the surge of crude in global markets.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has been putting the economy on a drip with almost zero interest rates for a year, warned of this increase, due to the base effect and the stronger-than-expected recovery of the economy . The question is whether this rise in prices is one-off or whether it will be accompanied by a price-wage spiral, creating real inflation.
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