Internal disputes and poor poll numbers have plunged the American Democrats into a low mood. In recent weeks, however, they have had surprising success. Nevertheless, they will hardly be able to avert a debacle in the congressional elections.
Joe Biden and his party have had some surprising successes recently.
For American Democrats, it must feel like a long, dark tunnel that suddenly has light pointing towards the end. A moment ago, the mood in the party was devastated: internal disputes blocked their concerns, fears of recession and inflation they saw helpless. Her president also lacked any radiance. Joe Biden’s popularity fell to a record low, rarely has a president met with so little approval at this point in office. As a result, the Democrats face a crushing defeat in the fall elections, which would seal their inability to act in Congress.
But it is precisely in this desperate situation that Biden and his party have recently achieved some surprising successes. Of particular importance is the agreement reached with the recalcitrant Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who vetoed a gigantic social and investment package last fall and thus practically single-handedly torpedoed Biden’s domestic political agenda. The moderate politician is now supporting a drastically slimmed-down proposal that includes programs to reduce CO2emissions or healthcare costs without increasing the debt burden.
An early passage in the Senate, where the Democrats only have a wafer-thin majority, is therefore likely. Together with the billions of euros decided last year for the renovation of the infrastructure, this means that important democratic election promises have been fulfilled.
The killing of the head of Qaeda is an endorsement for Biden
Even more remarkable for a politically deeply divided Washington are some reforms that also came about with votes from the Republican Party. The tightening of gun laws adopted at the end of June is limited in terms of content, but it is the biggest step in this area in almost thirty years. In addition, a bipartisan law to strengthen the American chip industry was passed in the last few days, and one may even follow to secure same-sex marriage at the national level.
And finally, with the killing of Qaeda chief Aiman al-Zawari, not only did the elimination of one of the most wanted criminals succeed. The operation is also seen by the White House as evidence for Biden’s much-disputed statement that American soldiers are not needed in the Hindu Kush to fight terrorists.
All of this is raising hopes for the midterm elections among Democrats. They are fueled by the vote in Kansas, where even a very conservative population gave a clear rebuff to the Republican-driven abolition of state abortion laws.
In fact, it is possible that the fall result for the party will not be quite as catastrophic as recently expected. Gasoline prices have been since peaking in mid-June greatly decreased and could also flatten inflation. The labor market is booming and has now made up for all the job losses caused by the pandemic. Economic conditions will be the deciding factor, but Kansas showed that the issue of abortion can mobilize. In addition, some extreme candidates were chosen in the Republican primaries, which could gamble away the seat gains hoped for in “swing states”.
The Democrats are driven by their left wing
Nevertheless, the prospects for the Democrats remain bleak – mainly because their two basic problems cannot be solved for the time being. On the one hand, the party is driven by its left wing, whose ideas do not even convince moderates in its own ranks, let alone a majority of the population.
On the other hand, there is no draft horse for the 2024 presidential election. Biden once declared himself an interim candidate and, after the tumultuous years under Donald Trump, brought a little more prudence to American politics. But another term up to the age of 86 is hard to imagine. The logical “heir to the throne” would be Vice President Kamala Harris, who is even less popular than Biden. This issue will require difficult discussions and is already overshadowing the forthcoming election. The summer interim high does not change that.