Interview on the Taiwan conflict: “In the medium term, the risk of war increases”

While Europe is staring at the Russian-Ukrainian border, another focus of the conflict is being forgotten: Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China lays claim to the island republic and recently underpinned this again and again with threatening military gestures. “In the medium term, the risk of war increases”, says about it Helena Legarda from the research institute Merics in an interview with ntv.de – and explains the historical background of the conflict. But she also talks about the changed German view of China, the Bundeswehr frigate in the Indo-Pacific and possible reactions to an escalation of the situation.

ntv.de: Do you expect a military conquest of Taiwan by China?

Helena Legarda: Neither side wants war. Taiwan, of course, but neither China nor the United States want war. Concerns are growing, however, as China is making increasingly aggressive claims on the island, including with threatening military gestures. In addition, there is the deadline that Xi Jinping has apparently set: He wants a reunification with Taiwan, which should take place by 2049. This is slowly bringing us closer to a possible attack. China is striving for peaceful unification, but if this does not succeed, it does not rule out violence. And because there is no support in Taiwan for annexation to the People’s Republic, a military conquest in the end may be Beijing’s only option. Of course, nobody can say when that might happen. But seen in the medium term, the risk of war increases.

Especially since Xi took office, the threats have increased. Is the conquest of Taiwan consensus among the Chinese leadership?

At least it’s the official Chinese line. Since Xi has been in office, he has been rhetorically aiming for reunification with Taiwan. But the military threats increased massively in 2016 when the current President Tsai Ing-wen took office in Taiwan. She belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party, which wants to maintain the status quo and is more in favor of independence than the other big party, the Kuomintang.

How does the Taiwanese public see a possible unification with the People’s Republic?

A majority of the population clearly rejects this. The number of those who believe in unification or closer political ties to China is even decreasing. This trend has been going on for quite a while, in part because of the generation gap. But it was recently accelerated by Beijing’s action in Hong Kong. In the past, the People’s Republic of Taiwan proposed an association under the concept of “one country, two systems”, as is also the case in Hong Kong. But Beijing took action there and basically buried the concept. The opposition to unification has since increased in Taiwan.

The island of Taiwan was never part of the People’s Republic. Why is it so important for China to incorporate them?

Beijing regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory. This has historical and ideological reasons and serves to legitimize the Chinese Communist Party. The latter not only won the civil war against the troops of the Republic of China around Chiang Kai-shek in 1949, but also claims to have freed China from imperialist subjugation and expelled the Japanese from China. Since the founding of the People’s Republic it has been part of the self-image of the Communist Party that it ended a century of humiliation by colonial powers and that it is the only force that can restore China’s unity and strength and defend it against external enemies. In addition, Taiwan is of strategic importance to Beijing due to its location in the first chain of islands.

Are there any signs in China’s armaments policy that point to a planned conquest of Taiwan?

China has been modernizing its military equipment for quite a while. After taking office in 2012, Xi started a comprehensive modernization process of the military. So far, the focus has been on the development of larger military equipment platforms, such as cruisers or destroyers in the navy. It is about armaments with which Beijing can operate far from China, i.e. in principle worldwide.

But would you need other vehicles for an invasion of Taiwan?

When conquering, one thinks more of amphibious assault ships, landing ships or airplanes with which troops can be brought ashore quickly. However, China does not yet seem to have the number of these platforms it would take to conquer Taiwan. But that does not mean that it is not preparing for an invasion, because China could attack in a completely different way, for example by air strikes on strategically important points or by a sea blockade intended to surrender Taiwan.

In Germany, China is primarily perceived as a trading partner. How are the German government and the EU reacting to the country’s increasing military and strategic power?

Germany’s view of China is changing, especially in terms of security policy. Germany and the EU view not only the armament and modernization of the military with concern, but above all the Chinese ambitions. The question of how China will use its growing military power and what effects it will have on the rules-based international order as well as on German and European interests and security has become a fundamental issue. These concerns are also reflected in the EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which was published just a few months ago. This strategy has a very broad spectrum, it’s not just about China, but the country is of course the elephant in the room.

What is the result of this strategy?

In the chapter on security policy in particular, it quickly becomes clear that the EU is reacting with concern to Chinese ambitions and their growing military power. On the one hand, this is important because the EU itself is not a major military power. And secondly, this development took place within a few years. Until recently, issues such as economy and trade were high on the EU’s list of priorities in relation to China, not the military and security. In the meantime, however, it is clear that this rapid development of China’s global power will challenge the EU and Germany as well and that they must react to it.

Germany sent a frigate to the Indo-Pacific under the old federal government. How was that received in China?

That was an issue especially before the change of government. Of course, Beijing was not exactly happy about this. It was interpreted as a signal that Germany wants to become more involved in the Indo-Pacific, possibly together with partners such as the USA. Beijing actually wants to prevent that at all costs, because one of the greatest worries is that an alliance will be formed under Western leadership and that China will oppose it. If states like Germany, which up to now have been neutral towards China, at least militarily, suddenly change their strategy and become more involved in the Indo-Pacific, then Beijing will be very aware of this. That is probably the reason why China also denied the German frigate access to the port of Shanghai. This was officially justified with the corona pandemic, but there are certainly geostrategic considerations behind it.

Now there was a change of government – how is Beijing assessed?

They are waiting to see how the new government behaves, whether for example another ship will be dispatched in the coming years. Then China can react accordingly.

The new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wants to orient her politics more towards values ​​and also deal more aggressively with China. How could Germany and the EU react to Chinese provocations or even military action against Taiwan?

Most European countries do not have a permanent military presence in the Indo-Pacific, and many are not even strong military powers. So Europe could hardly or not at all support Taiwan militarily. But if partners like the USA or Japan were involved, they would certainly expect political support from Taiwan, and of course measures against China, such as sanctions. Given Baerbock’s announcement of a new China policy, Germany could take on the leading role within Europe in such a case. However, the new federal government has only been in office for a very short time. We have to wait and see what course it ultimately takes in relations with China.

Taiwan has recently sent more delegations to European countries and has even opened an embassy in Lithuania. Could Germany forge closer ties with Taiwan or even recognize it diplomatically?

In Germany there is already a representation, although with consideration for the One China Policy Taipei Representation Office is called, but de facto takes on the tasks of an embassy. I cannot imagine diplomatic recognition, however, as that would violate the one-China policy and mean the end of diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic. This is something that neither Germany nor most other countries are ready for. But I think there could be more exchanges. Taiwan is currently endeavoring to strengthen relations with Europe, including to obtain political and diplomatic support. Europe, on the other hand, accepts this without officially recognizing Taiwan.

Markus Lippold spoke to Helena Legarda