Is Italy worse than France was when it debuted in the tournament?

The modest fifth place (out of six) of the Italian XV for its twenty-fifth participation in the Six Nations Tournament could be seen as another bad result. But for the Squadra Azzurra, the 2024 edition has a taste of success: two victories (over Scotland and Wales) and a draw conceded to the XV of France, with a missed penalty in the last minute of the match. With only two defeats, this is the best sporting result for the Italians in this tournament, which brings together the rugby elite of the Northern Hemisphere.

Since their integration into the prestigious rugby competition in 2000, the Italians have struggled to get off the bottom of the rankings. Rumors of replacement by Georgia are becoming less insistent than a few years ago, and the 2024 result should put an end to it for a while at least. Especially since Italy “perfectly identified his weak points, and did everything to fill them”, recalls Yvonnick Le Lay, researcher in sports geography at Rennes-II University, specialist in the globalization of rugby.

While France won its tenth grand slam in 2022, and it took two second places in a row behind Ireland, it is difficult to remember that in 1910 it was the Blues who were in the situation of Italy. The French rugby team then joined what was still the Five Nations Tournament. And the finish was tough: four defeats, including a painful 27-0 against Scotland and a 49-14 against Wales.

Can Italy console itself for its persistent poor results by comparing them to those of France at the start? Not really, unfortunately. By studying the first twenty-five appearances of the Blues since 1910 and despite interruptions, among other things due to world wars, we see that the French have managed to raise their level of play. Out of one hundred matches played in the Five Nations in twenty- five editions, the Blues have won twenty-seven times (and drawn two times), or 29% of matches without defeat. The Italians, who played 125, only won thirteen (and two draws), or 12% without defeat.

Italians on a better start, but who are not keeping up with the level over time

This graph represents, for their first 25 participations in the tournament, the percentage of matches without defeat (wins and draws) for theItaly and for the France. The “trend” over time of the results of the two teams is represented by the line (linear regression line calculated according to the least squares method).

Between the two world wars and the exclusion of the French for “professionalism” (from 1932 to 1938), the first 25 participations of the French XV in the five nations span 44 years from 1910 to 1954. Italy has participated in the six nations tournament continuously since 2000.

The Blues won their first tournament in their twenty-fifth participation, in 1954 – a shared victory, but which ended with a defeat for the English in France. The first French grand slam dates from 1968, for the thirty-ninth participation of the XV of France.

The Italian XV does not seem to have started on the same basis: it did not win any victories during the 2016 to 2021 editions. Italian rugby players can still be proud of having beaten at least once each nation in the tournament, except England.

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