A truce agreement and the abandonment of an offensive in Rafah in the balance. Despite lengthy talks, representatives of Hamas and Israel failed to reach a truce agreement this Friday. They left Cairo after “two days of negotiations”, specifying that the efforts of the mediating countries – Egypt, Qatar, United States – “are continuing to bring together the points of view of the two parties”.
Hamas gave the green light Monday to a proposal presented by mediators which includes, according to the movement, a truce in three phases, each lasting 42 days, including an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as well as an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners with a view to a “permanent ceasefire”. But Israel responded that this proposal was “far from its demands” and repeated its opposition to a definitive ceasefire as long as Hamas, in power in Gaza since 2007 and which it considers a terrorist organization as well as the United States and the European Union, will not be “defeated”.
Balance of power
“For the moment, the chances of an agreement are quite low. In a negotiation process like this, we are of course playing between the balance of power on the ground and the negotiation, which has a psychological effect. The fact “that Hamas agreed to negotiate after refusing for a long time wanted to be shown by Israel as the fact that Hamas is in a weak situation”, analyzes Gilles Kepel, university professor and specialist in the Arab world this Friday during the Great Europe interview 1-CNews.
“Was the negotiation serious? I am not absolutely convinced. In Israel itself, you have very strong pressure for negotiation which comes from the peace camp, which identifies in part with the families of the hostages who have for main objective the release of the hostages While for Benjamin Netanyahu, it is mainly a question of obtaining a military victory, that is to say, of showing that he can have the skin of the leader of Hamas or destroy the last infrastructures. Hamas soldiers in Rafah”, continues the specialist.
Political strategy
A strategy for the Israeli Prime Minister to “save his political skin” according to Gilles Kepel. Because within the Knesset, the country’s parliament, some of the most radical allies threaten to leave the coalition if he ever signs a ceasefire or does not carry out a military operation in Rafah, “which would automatically lead to the end of the Netanyahu government,” he concludes.
As a reminder, 1.4 million Palestinians are currently crowded into Rafah, the majority displaced by the violence. Defying international warnings, the Israeli army has since Tuesday carried out incursions described as “targeted” in the east of the city and taken control of the border crossing with Egypt, blocking a key entry point for the humanitarian aid convoys to the besieged territory.