A lack of weapons, a lack of success, little protection from the cold and a collapse in US aid: There are a whole series of reasons why this winter is a threat for the Ukrainians. If the West wants to turn the tide, it has to switch to turbo.
1. The troops find too little protection from the winter
In the offensive in the east of the country, the Ukrainian troops did not manage to completely break through the Russian defensive positions, but remained behind the first line. If they had reached and liberated the Russian-occupied town of Tokmak, they would have been able to set up their winter quarters there, with protection against the cold. But under constant Russian artillery and drone fire, the Ukrainians were unable to advance any further. Now they have to cope with the weather in open areas and try to make their camp as winter-proof as possible. “The Russian soldiers on the other side have the advantage that they have already set up their defensive positions for months,” says Colonel Markus Reisner ntv.de. This means they are better protected against snow and cold.
2. Not just the frontline fighters, everyone is exhausted
It is the second winter on the front for the Ukrainian troops, and in contrast to the situation a year ago, they lack the success of a previous offensive to give them courage. In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainians had reconquered a surprising amount of terrain near Kherson and Kharkiv and were therefore confident about the winter’s efforts. This year that is missing. Military expert Nico Lange observes “a general exhaustion” among the front-line soldiers in Ukraine, but not only there. The “permanent physical and psychological strain” can be felt right up to the highest positions in the general staff or the government. Everyone is “on the edge of their physical performance and therefore quickly irritated psychologically,” describes Lange in the NDR podcast “Armed Forces and Strategies.” It is currently difficult to be confident and to radiate confidence in Ukraine.
3. There is a lack of ammunition
In March 2023, the EU seemed to have nailed it: a million shots within a year – that was the promise to the fighting Ukrainians. It should be 155 millimeters of artillery ammunition, suitable for the NATO weapons that Western supporting states had supplied Kiev and whose ammunition Ukraine cannot produce itself. Nine months later, the results are devastating and are therefore being concealed as best as possible in Brussels: According to information from the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, the number of 155 millimeter bullets supplied so far from the states’ own stocks is said to be just 100,000.
There has also been far too little ordered so far and the arms industry lacks the capacity to process it. Their production volumes are largely at capacity with existing orders from the USA, and the suppliers of the large corporations cannot multiply their production on demand. Speaking of suppliers: a number of components come – no surprise – from China, which is an ally of Russia.
With a consumption of at least 150,000 rounds of artillery ammunition per month, and sometimes twice as much in tougher battles, it becomes clear what the EU’s failure means for the combat effectiveness of Kiev’s troops: the Ukrainians will not have nearly the same amount of ammunition available this winter that they would need.
4. There is a lack of weapons
What applies to ammunition is also a central problem for the supply of weapons: the stocks of European countries are worrisomely incomplete. Only the Balts and Scandinavians were prepared for a long, intense war in Europe; for others, such as Germany, military shortages were the norm. Some artillery systems, main battle vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles have been handed over to Ukraine – often only after a tough struggle.
But the months that passed in the spring, when the Ukrainians were still waiting for Western weapons, the Russian troops used to dig in along the front line and build positions so defensive that they were difficult to break through. Ukraine had to fight its offensive in the summer without having enough fighter jets, minesweepers or cruise missiles. Now we urgently need to re-equip for a spring offensive, but many EU countries are already getting down to business.
5. Too little, too late, too defensive
Germany is denying Kiev the powerful Taurus cruise missile and is instead relying on the supply of anti-aircraft weapons. They are good for protecting infrastructure and the population. You can’t win a war with that. Germany’s behavior represents the attitude of the Western support group as a whole: They don’t want to see Ukraine go under, but they aren’t giving it what it needs to win. The result: Ukraine is burning itself out because it will never be in a position to be able to penetrate the Russian lines with any mass and really well-equipped forces. If she tries anyway, it will cost many soldiers’ lives and equipment. If the West does not switch to turbo now and prepare comprehensive support for a spring offensive, then there will be no breakthrough and therefore no turnaround in the war in 2024.
6. The war is losing momentum, a long trench war threatens
Hardly anyone in the West thought it possible that the Ukrainian offensive would miss its most important goal because the Ukrainians’ demands were not taken seriously. Of the quantities of weapons that the commander of the armed forces, General Valeriy Zalushnyj, had declared necessary for the offensive, the West only delivered a good half and thought to itself: It will work. But it went wrong.
To be successful, it would have been necessary to advance to the Sea of Azov and thereby drive a wedge all the way to the coast in the land bridge that had been conquered by Russia. In this way, important supply and supply routes to and from the Crimean peninsula could have been cut off. However, that didn’t work. The Russians had built up their positions too well while Ukraine waited for Western weapons in the spring.
With Saluschnyj, a high-ranking Ukrainian military officer has now publicly stated for the first time that the most important goal of the offensive has not been achieved. In the British “Economist” he described the situation as a growing “stalemate”. This is dangerous because Russia is not fighting alone, but has China, North Korea and Iran behind it.
The stalemate is also caused by the massive use of reconnaissance drones on both sides. Neither of the two warring parties can take another step without being spotted by the enemy. This means that a surprise attack is not possible. But Ukraine would need that to get back into the forehand.
7. Russia has become technologically advanced
In the early days of the war, the Russian military was repeatedly described as outdated in terms of warfare and equipment. But the Russians have used the past 18 months to catch up, especially in the use of drones and electronic warfare. “The gap that initially existed between them and the quantitatively weaker but technically superior Ukrainians is closing more and more,” says security expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations in an interview with ntv.de. For example, the Russians can now jam the GPS control of Western cruise missiles so effectively that the majority of high-quality missiles miss their target.
A year ago, a difference could have been made in the war if Kiev’s troops had been supplied with large numbers of battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. “Now that alone is no longer enough,” says Gressel. “Now you have to rethink combined arms combat with a very tight integration of electronic warfare and drones.” There is no indication that this is already happening in the West. “Ukraine has to make the weapons that are crucial to the war,” says Gressel.
8. The West has illusions
While military expert Nico Lange sees a lot of anger in Ukraine against Russian President Vladimir Putin and “a great determination to keep fighting,” the supporting West seems to be weakening earlier than the fighting Ukrainians. In many debates about the situation on the battlefield, a “negotiated solution” is presented as a way out of the war as a likely consequence of dwindling combat power. If the Ukrainian people and ultimately President Volodymyr Zelensky realized that Russia cannot be defeated, then Kiev would finally agree to “peace negotiations.”
But talks take two, and the Russian president has never shown or even declared a willingness to negotiate. He recently reiterated in a speech that Ukraine is not an independent nation and must be brought under Russian control. The Kremlin propagated the conquest of the neighboring country from day one of the war, resulting in military dominance throughout Europe.
Negotiations stand in the way of this goal and are not necessary from Putin’s perspective. The president sees his troops on the road to victory – not least because of the hesitancy of Western aid for Ukraine. From his point of view, his original expectation that the West will not stand together and abandon Ukraine is now coming true – with some delay.
9. The USA is already rehearsing the exit
Western support, which has been too weak to enable Ukraine to win over the past 18 months, is now threatened with a dramatic collapse: Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress cannot agree on a new aid package because the conservatives agree want to buy a stricter migration policy with their consent.
President Joe Biden wants to invest more than 43.6 billion US dollars “in the US industrial base” in order to increase weapons and ammunition production capacities and replenish inventories. In total, the Ukraine package is said to be worth $60 billion. But the majority of Republicans reject the aid and only want to agree if they get stricter asylum laws in return. The Democrats don’t want to be blackmailed. The White House warned Congress that money for Ukraine would run out “by the end of the year.”
Politicians like the Green Anton Hofreiter or CSU man Manfred Weber are trying to make the dramatic situation clear to their European colleagues shortly before the next EU summit: “Now it’s even more important for Europe,” Hofreiter told the RND and urged the European partners to to order weapon systems “quickly and extensively” from the defense industry. Weber, head of the European conservatives, warned: “If Ukraine loses this war, there will be no peace, Putin will continue to attack us.” He also called on the heads of state and government to provide further help. “The EU summit next week must send a clear signal of support, we stand with Ukraine.”