Lman always oscillates between pessimism and optimism, between the glass half empty and the glass half full, according to his moods. Never short of paradoxes, management gurus have hijacked the phrase of the Italian revolutionary Antonio Gramsci, who advocated the pessimism of intelligence (of reflection) combined with the optimism of will (of action). Volunteers, let’s try to imagine 2024 as bringing good surprises.
After having suffered, in recent years, a historic health crisis, record inflation, an energy cataclysm, without forgetting exceptional climatic and geopolitical disorders, it will not be too difficult to do better. Let’s take the five projects that we inherit from the late year 2023.
The first is that of inflation. Against the predictions of most economists and analysts, it calmed down more quickly than expected, falling in Europe from more than 10% at the end of 2022 to less than 3% at the start of 2024. The optimists were right: the increase in prices was indeed cyclical – due to soaring energy costs and the war in Ukraine – and not structural. The European Central Bank, which had supported this idea before violently moving in the other direction, would be inspired to lower its interest rates in the spring, in order to relieve a continental economy in probable recession, without waiting for the United States to show the way. It would be a nice surprise. If only for the real estate market.
The second project is that of employment. Notwithstanding, here again, the Cassandres’ warning, the market is holding up well in Europe and even in France, despite the increase in wages, the drop in productivity and the increase in the activity rate of seniors, particularly in the Hexagon. 2024 should confirm this trend.
Resilience of supply chains
The third good news could come from the energy transition. The year 2023 was that of Chinese fear over electric cars and laments over the difficulties of wind power. This year, Renault and Stellantis will gain momentum, with more financially accessible models supported by new tailor-made state aid. The milestone of 100,000 charging stations was reached in August 2023, ten times more than the number of service stations. The anxiety of the breakdown quickly recedes. 2024 will be the year of the switch to electric. In 2023, Spain will produce half of its electricity with renewable energy. Wind power is no longer anecdotal.
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