(CercleFinance.com) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its global growth forecast for 2024 on Tuesday, estimating that a ‘soft landing’ of the economy was entirely possible.
In its new growth projections, the IMF says it expects global growth of 3.1% this year, or 0.2 percentage points more than forecast in October, i.e. growth at the same level as ‘in 2023.
For 2025, the IMF estimates that growth should modestly accelerate to reach 3.2%, or 0.2 points more than expected in October, due in particular to the greater resistance than expected of the American economy and budgetary support measures put in place in China.
The institution specifies, however, that its forecasts for 2024-2025 are below the historical average (2000-2019) of 3.8% due to the still high level of central bank key rates.
Given disinflation and stable growth, the likelihood of a hard landing has faded and the risks to global growth are broadly balanced, the IMF said.
On the positive side, faster-than-expected disinflation could lead to further easing of monetary policies, but on the other hand, persistent inflation could prolong the tightening of monetary conditions, it says.
The international institution expects French GDP to increase by 1% this year, after +0.8% in 2023, before re-accelerating to +1.7% in 2025.
The economy in the euro zone is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2024 after expanding by 0.5% in 2023 and improving to +1.7% next year, according to its estimates.
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