Market optimism regarding inflation fades – 09/29/2023 at 6:19 p.m.


World stock markets progressed on Friday but lost part of their gains from the start of the session, the momentum observed after the publication of inflation figures considered positive having faded.

Paris finished up 0.26%, Frankfurt up 0.41%, Milan up 0.28% and London finished almost stable (+0.08%). European stock markets showed more enthusiasm in the middle of the session after the publication of a clear slowdown in inflation in the euro zone, to 4.3% over one year, its lowest level in two years, after 5, 2% in August. The figure is better than expected by analysts.

After opening in the green, the Wall Street indices also tempered their optimism: around 3:55 p.m. GMT, the Nasdaq gained 0.61%, the S&P 500 gained 0.14% and the Dow Jones fell 0.16%.

In the United States, inflation accelerated to 3.5% in August, according to the PCE index, a measure favored by the American Federal Reserve (Fed), but excluding the volatile prices of energy and food, so-called underlying inflation slows to 3.9% over one year.

These figures are in line with or slightly below analysts’ forecasts, which reassures the markets.

Operators also noted that consumption adjusted for inflation was up 0.1% over one month, while economists saw it as stable.

These inflation figures published on Friday “confirm that the disinflationary trend is present in Europe and the United States”, comments Charlotte de Montpellier, ING economist.

“The probability of additional rate increases has decreased,” she adds, while warning that it has not disappeared and that “rates will remain high for a long time.”

Rates were easing on the bond market, after reaching multi-year highs in the previous days amid the prospect that central banks would maintain their high key rates for longer than expected.

The interest rate on the 10-year German government debt stood at 2.84% around 3:55 p.m. GMT, compared to 2.93% the day before, and the American equivalent was at 4.56% compared to 4. 58% Thursday.

The political situation in the United States is also attracting the attention of investors, where the “shutdown”, a paralysis of the federal government, now seems inevitable.

This “shutdown” could begin on Sunday if elected representatives of Congress cannot agree on the budget and “could have a lot of repercussions on the markets because it would imply a halt to the publication of macroeconomic data”, warns Charlotte from Montpellier.

Such a situation could also cost percentage points of growth if it lasts for a long time.

Nike even more efficient

Nike shares climbed 6.09% in New York after the company reported quarterly net profit significantly higher than expectations.

The entire sports goods and equipment sector benefited: in Frankfurt, Adidas gained 6.22% and Puma 5.76%. JD Sports rose 4.80% in London.

The car at a standstill

The UAW (United Auto Workers) union called on 7,000 additional members to stop work at Ford (+0.25% in New York) and General Motors (+0.23%) sites in the United States. These employees will join the ranks of some 18,600 employees already on strike at Ford, GM and Stellantis (+0.23% in Paris).

The German car manufacturer Volkswagen (+0.17%) announced that it would manufacture its future electric sedan “Trinity” in its East German factory in Zwickau, abandoning its initial plan to build a dedicated site near its headquarters in Wolfsburg.

On the side of oil and currencies

Oil prices give up all their gains from the start of the session, but remain close to the symbolic mark of 100 dollars per barrel.

Around 3:55 p.m. GMT, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in November was worth 95.31 dollars (-0.07%).

As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity, it lost 0.62%, to 91.18 dollars.

The dollar is falling against the euro, with investors taking profits after the rise of the greenback in recent weeks. The euro rose 0.14% to 1.0581 dollars.

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