In supermarkets, inflation reached +2.67% in April compared to the same month in 2021.
Inflation is accelerating in France. In supermarkets, it reached +2.67% in April – compared to April 2021 -, according to data from panelist NielsenIQ published last week, after +1.26% in March and +0.52% in February. “An unprecedented increase, we had never seen such a high figure in the past“says Emmanuel Cannes, expert within the company specializing in the analysis of consumer behavior and distribution.
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Certain food products are particularly affected by these price increases. Over one month, from March to April, it is the meat, poultry and charcuterie category that is experiencing the highest inflation, according to NielsenIQ, and by far (+5.23%).
Asked about RMC on Tuesday, the president of the French Confederation of Butchers-Charcuterie-Caterers (CFBCT), Jean-François Guihard, justified this significant increase by “a drop in production” lately, due to a “insufficient remunerationof breeders, and by rising energy prices.
According to Emmanuel Cannes of NielsenIQ, there is also “without a doubt anticipation effectsdue to the war in Ukraine, which caused cereal prices to soar, and therefore the cost of animal feed. “The meat will continue to rise for several months“says Jean-François Guihard.
Oil Rush
Behind the meat, poultry and charcuterie category, oil saw the highest inflation over one month (+2.96%), due to “mainly tensions on the grain markets, particularly wheat, whose prices have been rising for several months and have exploded with the crisis in Ukraine“, explains Emmanuel Cannes. A trend that could get even worse, given the rush of French consumers for sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is the largest producer in the world: oil sales jumped 29% in April, according to NielsenIQ.
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If they are not part of the ten most inflationary product categories over a month according to NielsenIQ, pasta is also weighing more and more heavily on household wallets. The price increase observed in supermarkets over one year reached +13.4% in March compared to the same month last year, according to the panelist IRI. We find the same explanation as for the oil:increases in commodity prices“, analyzes Emily Mayer, expert at IRI, “in particular durum wheat since October, due in particular to the vagaries of the weather, in particular the summer drought in Canada“.
A surge in commodity prices which “ultimately affects a lot of products”, underlines Emmanuel Cannes, from the firm NielsenIQ, citing among others flour and sugar, two other products among the most inflationary in April over one month. For roasted coffee, the third most inflationary category in April (+2.88%), the cause is to be found on the side of “weather conditions in brazil last year“, notes Emmanuel Cannes. For paper towels (+2.59%) or toilet paper (+2.11%), on the “supply problems in the timber industry“.
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And the increases to be collected for consumers are not over. “We will see a rise in inflation at the start of the summer“, warns Emily Mayer, of the cabinet IRI, when all the effects of the war in Ukraine will be felt. The analysis company estimates that the rise in prices of consumer goods and fresh food could reach +5% at that time. On the side of NielsenIQ, we expect an annual increase of 4% in 2022. “The hierarchy of the products concerned will not change much compared to today, only the percentages will increase“says Emily Mayer.
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