The 25th and final week of the regular season has begun. While the Boston Celtics are showing historic dominance at the top of the table, nine East teams behind them are fighting until the last day of the game for the best starting position before the start of the postseason. An overview.
The 25th and final week of the regular season has begun. While the Boston Celtics are showing historic dominance at the top of the table, nine East teams behind them are fighting until the last day of the game for the best starting position before the start of the postseason. Leading the way are the dominant Boston Celtics, who will not only be the only team in the league to achieve 60-plus wins, but their net rating of plus-12.0 points per 100 ball possessions will only be in the all-time best list of Michael Jordan’s legendary Chicago Bulls from that season 1995-96 was topped (plus 13.4).
The top ten teams in each conference qualify for the postseason. The top six in East and West are automatically seeded. Teams ranked seven to ten have the chance to qualify via the “play-in” mini-tournament. The difference to the playoffs is the “Single Elimination Format”: a defeat is equivalent to an elimination (teams in the 7/8 receive two chances to make it to the playoffs).
The winner of the seventh versus eighth duel will be placed seventh. The loser plays against the winner from nine against ten for a second chance to secure the eighth seed. Then the playoffs go into the series of first against eighth, second against seventh, third against sixth and fourth against fifth in the well-known best-of-seven format. Whoever wins four games first moves on to a round. An overview of the teams behind the Celtics.
2. Milwaukee Bucks (47-31)
Even under Doc Rivers (15-17), the Bucks continue to fall short of expectations, although the defense is better and the team with the best record in the East behind Boston has only rarely had access to its full contingent of players. Nevertheless, the many defeats recently – especially against basement children like Memphis, Toronto and Washington – are more than worrying. Especially since a closer look at team morale and fun factor in the 2021 NBA Champions also gives reason for concern. Even the two strong-playing superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard don’t manage to ensure calm and continuity here – the rest of the squad around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez looks old, fed up and tired. The remaining schedule is the toughest in the league; in the worst case, the Bucks could slip to fifth place. Two key duels with Orlando, including one on the final day of the season, will ultimately decide the exact starting point of a difficult playoff mission. Anything other than participation in the Conference Finals would be a bitter disappointment.
Tiebreakers: Milwaukee holds the tiebreaker against the Knicks, 76ers and Miami, leads the Central Division over Cleveland, and still has to play Orlando twice (1-1).
3. Orlando Magic (46-32)
The young Magic are looking to successfully complete their best season since 2010-11. The chances of home advantage in round one are good, especially after yesterday’s home win against the Bulls, coupled with the defeats of the Bucks and Cavaliers. The gap to Milwaukee is now just one defeat, two duels are still outstanding and de facto count double in a direct fight. Led by All-NBA candidate Paolo Banchero and his congenial big wing partner Franz Wagner (career-high 19.6 points per game), supported by an enviably deep role player squad led by the true Duracell hare Moritz Wagner (career-high 10.8 points per game). Game leads with 67.2 percent true shooting), Orlando has established itself as one of the best teams after the All-Star break. The defense is tough, the tempo is low, the roles are clearly assigned and morale is at its peak – a good recipe for successful weeks as a party crasher at the more established clubs in April and (hopefully) May.
Tiebreakers: Orlando holds the tiebreaker against the Knicks and Pacers, as well as Cleveland via division victory, and still has to play against Milwaukee twice (1:1).
4. New York Knicks (46-32)
Bad news for the New York Knicks last week: All-Star big man Julius Randle has to go under the knife and will miss the rest of the season. This means the Knickerbockers are missing one half of the dynamic inside-outside duo that played the league into the ground in January. Does Tom Thibodeau’s defensively strong team have enough quality around All-NBA guard Jalen Brunson to start a serious push? To answer that question yes, it would be essential to somehow move up from the 4-5 slot to avoid the Celtics in round two. The return of defensive ace OG Anunoby last weekend helps. The remaining schedule is the third most difficult of all East aspirants (Chicago, Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago) – although New York could benefit from the fact that there won’t be much at stake for their competitors Chicago, Boston and Brooklyn.
Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker against the Cavaliers, Heat and 76ers.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (46-33)
The Cavaliers are in danger of falling apart at the worst possible time. A 17-1 run made the team from Ohio look like a real contender. Then injuries to Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley again caused the engine to sputter badly. Eight defeats from the last eleven games have not only prevented the Cavaliers from capitalizing on Milwaukee’s weak phase in the Central Division, but have also put them on a level playing field with the Magic and Knicks. Both Orlando (via division win) and New York own the tiebreaker. So for the second time in a row, Cleveland is in danger of having to play in a 4-on-5 matchup against an up-and-coming, defensively tough team in round one. Only a perfect final week of the season will avert this fate and another feared early playoff exit. That would be doubly devastating if All-Star guard Mitchell leaves the team as a free agent in the summer.
6. Indiana Pacers (45-34)
The Pacers end their successful season with an impressive run and thanks to well-known strengths: an absurdly fast pace of play (no non-lottery team plays faster) and an offensive tactic commonly referred to as “Try to score more points than us!” can be described. Only three times in 79 games in which the Pacers have taken part has one of the two teams remained under 100 points. How sustainably this run-and-gun tactic can work in slower, more competitive playoff environments is a question for another day. Seven wins from the last ten games – including against the Thunder, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors and Heat – have brought All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton’s team up to operating temperature before the last grateful tasks of the regular season.
Tiebreakers: Indiana holds the tiebreaker against the Bucks, Knicks, 76ers and Heat, and still has to play Cleveland (2-1).
7. Philadelphia 76ers (44-35)
Joel Embiid’s comeback has completely changed the prospects of the Philadelphia 76ers. The third-best net rating after a 29-17 start turned into a pitch-black season without the reigning MVP, which saw Philly plummet to the play-in spots. With Embiid back in the lineup, this team can now play completely freely and become the favorites. The 76ers will initially fight with Miami and Indiana for a direct playoff place on the remaining game days. The tiebreaker lies with the Pacers and Heat (via a better conference record), but Nick Nurse’s team can keep the pressure on their competitors high with three manageable wins from the remaining three games. In a potential play-in, the Sixers would be clearly favored thanks to Embiid and All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey (who scored 52 points in their fifth straight win yesterday).
Tiebreakers: Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker against Orlando.
8. Miami Heat (43-35)
Confuse the Heat. Erik Spoelstra’s team missed a big chance to climb the table in March when the schedule was cotton candy. A meager 10-10 record in the last 20 games is somehow a reflection of this Heat season, which – of course also due to injuries – never really got going. The only quality wins in the past six weeks came against Cleveland and New York; Yesterday’s loss to Indiana hurts twice as much because it also gave the Pacers the tiebreaker. The remaining duels this week encourage us to make one last little push and leave the play-in cluster. Of course, you should never write off Jimmy Butler’s Heat – and not just because of the three Conference Finals runs in four years. Last year, Miami also started from the eight-seat… and only failed in the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets.
Tiebreakers: Miami holds the tiebreaker against Orlando and Cleveland.
9. Chicago Bulls (37-41)
The Bulls will finish the season in a play-in spot. Whether ninth or tenth depends not least on the two remaining duels with the arch-rivals from the Big Apple. Two games against the New York Knicks could tip the scales as to whether the Bulls can enjoy home advantage against Atlanta in the first play-in game or have to play away. Chicago holds the tiebreaker against the Hawks, so with the same record on matchday 82 they would have an advantage.
10. Atlanta Hawks (36-42)
For Atlanta, the remaining games are actually about nothing – the play-in duel against the Chicago Bulls is safe. Atlanta has lost two of the three duels in the regular season and is only hoping for the timely return of All-Star guard Trae Young, who has not been on the floor since his finger surgery in February. With or without Young: the Hawks are the worst of all 20 postseason teams and as such are blessed with little more than outsider chances of advancing.