National Council Canton Aargau – According to projections, SVP could gain an additional seat – News

In Aargau, 713 people are fighting for one of the 16 National Council seats. Is the SVP enough for another seat?

• The rush for the 16 Aargau National Council seats is great.
• According to SRG projections from GFS Bern, the SVP could make significant gains.
• The SVP could correct its 2019 result and gain an additional seventh seat, the EVP could lose its.
• But the result is still close, says GFS Bern.

According to SRG projections from GFS Bern, the SVP could gain one seat. But this is still very close, says GFS Bern. The error range of the projection is plus or minus three percent.

The big loser would be the Green Party. She could still get 6.7 percent of the vote, a loss of a third. The EPP (Lilian Studer) would even lose its seat. The SP, FDP and Center are also losing significant share of the vote. According to projections, however, this would not result in any seat shifts for these parties.

How is an extrapolation created?


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On behalf of the SRG, the GFS Bern research institute prepares projections for the National Council elections. The calculations are carried out diligently in the extrapolation center in Zurich. Urs Bieri, political scientist at GFS, explains how an extrapolation comes about. “National elections are cantonal elections,” says Urs Bieri. “We therefore look at the distribution of votes in each canton, convert that into the distribution of seats, and add it up at the national level.”

The announced SRG projection from GFS Bern was delayed on Sunday because results from the communities were missing. Results from larger communities, Aarau or Baden for example, are currently still missing.

Who will get the SP seat?

It will be exciting to see who takes over the seat of long-time National Councilor Ruth Humbel (center). The health politician gave up her seat to Andreas Meier in February 2023.

The SP has to worry about its third seat. It won this in 2019 thanks to the list connection with the then very successful Greens. In addition, Yvonne Feri (SP), a well-known national councilor, is no longer running. Will Simona Brizzi (SP) from Ennetbaden or Colette Basler (SP) from Fricktal get their seat?

High goals

The SVP wants to get back the lost seventh seat. The FDP also wants to make gains. She would like to overtake the SP in terms of voter share and would thus get a third seat. The Greens and Green Liberals are also each aiming for a second seat.

It is questionable whether the EPP can hold its only seat. If not, then the national party president Lilian Studer would be voted out.