After not only the auto industry itself, but also customers were skeptical of electromobility for a long time, the spell seems to be finally broken: one sales record is chasing the other – in the first half of 2021 the proportion of purely electric cars in Swiss new cars rose to just under ten percent , for the rechargeable plug-in hybrids to over eight percent. Compared to the previous year, sales of “plug-in vehicles” have more than doubled.
2.9 million e-cars by 2035
A study by the Swiss eMobility Association shows that this is not just a short-term boom, but an unstoppable trend. Based on previous studies and the current market situation, the forecast represents a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario. In the pessimistic case, the study authors expect a plug-in car market share of 40 percent in Swiss new registrations in 2025, 72 percent in 2030 and 91 percent in 2035.
In the more optimistic case, the proportion should be 60 percent in 2025, 94 percent in 2030 and 99 percent in 2035. This means that in 14 years there will be almost no new cars with combustion engines on the market in Switzerland, and the e-car fleet will increase from 626,000 vehicles in 2025 to 2.9 million in 2035.
E-cars will soon be cheaper than combustion engines
The study is based on several assumptions. On the one hand, the production costs of e-cars will be “significantly reduced” in the coming years. This is mainly because the assembly of the electrical systems and the specific electrical platforms is less complex and less expensive than in today’s cars with internal combustion engines.
On the other hand, depending on the manufacturer, cost parity should be achieved between 2021 and 2023, which means that electric cars will then cost the same or less than comparable conventional models. If there were also regulatory restrictions on combustion models, such as driving restrictions in city centers or higher taxes, electric models will also overtake combustion models in terms of resale value.
E-cars are on the rise, plug-ins are disappearing
According to a TCS survey, the acceptance of e-cars is also increasing noticeably among motorists: while in 2019 49 percent said that they could imagine buying an e-car, this figure rose to 56 percent last year . The range of electric vehicles – another important factor – is also growing continuously. In 2019, a little more than 200 all-electric vehicles across all classes were available from us. In 2022 there should be almost 300 more models with around 500.
It is true that not only the supply of plug-in hybrids increased (from 2019 to 2022: plus 137 models), but also demand. Nevertheless, the authors assume that vehicles that have both a combustion engine and an electric motor are only a temporary solution and will disappear from the manufacturers’ range from 2030. «Anyone who has reservations about the suitability of e-mobility for everyday use can now rely on the tried and tested combustion technology for plug-in hybrids. The more pure electric cars establish themselves, the less the intermediate step via plug-in hybrids will be necessary, ”the authors write.
Switzerland is facing great change
At the end of their report, the authors also address a question that is repeatedly raised by opponents of e-cars in particular: How high will the additional electricity consumption be if a large part of the Swiss population will one day be electrically powered? (Read here: Do e-cars harm or benefit the climate?)
The astonishing result: Even if 2.9 million cars will be electrically powered by us in 2035, as described in the optimistic scenario, electricity consumption would only increase by 10.7 percent or 6700 gigawatt hours. The bottom line is that this would not only save enormous amounts of energy in the mobility sector. Switzerland would also be offered a fundamental opportunity: it could transform itself from an energy importer to an energy producer.