Thursday, September 23, 2021
Nuclear submarines against China
Biden picks up where Trump left off
From Roland Peters
A backroom deal for Australian nuclear submarines, a geopolitical pact to prepare for the conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific: This is how US President Biden is continuing the policies of Donald Trump and Barack Obama. Paris reacts horrified, but could benefit from it in the EU.
For a few minutes it was so harmonious: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, his British counterpart Boris Johnson and Joe Biden announced the new strategic “Aukus” partnership of their countries in the Indo-Pacific last week. It is about peace, freedom and human rights today and in the future, said the US President. The means is additional military cooperation. Biden called this a “historic step” to combat “the threats of the 21st century”, as the partners would have done together in the 20th century. What was meant, of course, was China.
Biden also mentioned the importance of European partners in general and France in particular because of its military presence in the Pacific. So far, so predictable. But then the torpedo exploded: As a first step by the Alliance, nuclear submarines would be built in Adelaide and equipped with US nuclear technology and conventional weapons. The French reacted as if cold sea water was poured over them: clearly angry to horrified. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian spoke of “duplicity, contempt and lies” by the allies. In protest, Paris called back its representatives from Washington and Canberra. Australia is a neighbor of the French overseas territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia.
It was a back room deal. Talks between the United States and Australia about their own submarine business began a year and a half ago under Trump. But just a few weeks ago declared the responsible ministers of France and Australia shared the importance of the so-called contract of the century, according to which the French manufacturer Naval Group was to deliver submarines to Australia for 66 billion dollars. The company had been working on it for five years. Paris had only been informed of the radical step a few hours beforehand. The Ambassador to Australia learned about it from the press.
Hard geopolitics
It’s not just about billions, jobs and contracts, it’s about tough geopolitics. Biden’s foreign policy vision is primarily directed towards the Indo-Pacific and competition with China. The Cold War in Europe against Russia and the Eastern Bloc is long over, the mission in Afghanistan now too, and the transatlantic alliance of NATO has lost its acute importance. The USA’s main competitor is China. France feels left out, especially since the government in Paris has the right to make its own geopolitical decisions. They are not always in line with the usual friend-foe thinking in the White House.
In the past decade, the economic power China has, among other things, built naval bases in its neighborhood and developed military clout. This is intended to secure economic growth. A significant part of the world trade routes pass through the international waters of the South China Sea. The democratic Taiwan, for example, is viewed by China as a breakaway province, and Beijing repeatedly emphasizes in public that the state would sooner or later become part of China again. That has possibly also military reasons: Only on the east coast of Taiwan does the sea floor drop sharply, from there Chinese submarines could run unnoticed into the Pacific.
The US wants to make sure that China does not use force to enforce possible economic and territorial claims against other countries. To this end, the US wants to have a permanent and visible military presence in the Pacific. The United States’s largest military presence is already in Japan, not Germany.
The French submarines were to be delivered with diesel engines, a conversion to nuclear drive could have taken place later. Nuclear submarines can remain under water for months, their deployment time is only limited by the catering for the crew. Diesel submarines, on the other hand, have to turn up regularly. Australia itself had wanted diesel instead of nuclear submarines, which is why the French Naval Group adapted the construction plans specifically for the order. It was the most expensive arms contract in Australian history. All of this indicates that it was a diplomatic decision to build the submarines in cooperation with the US.
In the “New York Times” the diplomatic crisis was described as the “birth woe of the Pacific conflict of the century between the West and China” designated. Biden had weighed up what was more important – the satisfaction of the ally France, who is pursuing its own agenda, or a firm commitment of Australia and Great Britain to the strategic plans of the USA in the coming decades. the Indo-Pacific Strategy the EU provides for more dialogue and cooperation than open competition or even military deterrence. For Germany, the United States is true most important export buyer, but China has been the most important trading partner for years.
Development since Barack Obama
In his angry speech, French Foreign Minister Le Drian had also spoken of a “brutal, unilateral, unpredictable decision” that was reminiscent of Trump: “Allies don’t treat each other like that.” Biden’s tone is different – in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron he assured on Wednesday to communicate better in the future and to involve Paris more. But on the matter the Democrat is actually continuing the policies of his predecessors and even of himself. US interests come first, sometimes without much consideration and, as in the current case, even without flowers for long-term allies. When the country withdrew from Afghanistan, there had already been considerable European displeasure at the poor communication from Washington.
As Vice President of Barack Obama, Biden was already involved in the geopolitical reorientation towards the Indo-Pacific. In the past few years, Trump acted mainly on the basis of economic conflict lines, started a trade war with China and levied tariffs on the competitor. His blockade against the mobile phone company Huawei is still in force under Biden. There is no sign that this could change. The democrat repeatedly emphasizes the historical importance of the conflict of systems, of democracies against autocracies, most recently in his speech to the United Nations; However, he did not want a new Cold War or armed conflict, he said.
None of the Australian nuclear submarines are likely to leave before 2040. Two decades are a long time. But if China really does become the largest military power in the world by then, the US would evidently prefer to have its own technology in the hands of inviolable allies in Pacific waters rather than that of idiosyncratic French. But they could still benefit from the current situation. Macron is a well-known advocate of greater military independence from the US and permanent European armed forces. These proposals are now given a new urgency.