Omicron: what steps to follow to overcome the wave? The opinion of the Scientific Council

In its opinion dated this Wednesday, the Scientific Council says it and repeats it: the fifth wave is not (yet) over. With nearly 526,000 positive people on Monday, and more than 430,000 the next day, it is not the figures for daily contaminations that will say the opposite. Behind this explosion of cases, the culprit is found: the highly contagious Omicron variant. Between 9 to 14 million French people could have already been infected with this strain of the virus, underlines the opinion.

What to think that we have already reached the peak of contamination? In the United Kingdom, London would have passed it on January 1, 2022. But if our British neighbors are still one step ahead, we will still have to wait for France. Despite “a slight slowdown in the number of cases” in Île-de-France in particular, the start of the school year in January led to an epidemic resurgence which should be felt in the coming weeks in the hospital.

The challenge is therefore to limit hospital stress “which will continue until mid-March”, reads the notice. To do this, however, the effort will not be the same as for the other waves. If it were necessary to reduce its contacts between 50% and 80% before the summer of 2021, this time, the Scientific Council expects a drop of 20%. At the beginning of January, the epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur Arnaud Fontanet already indicated that this individual discipline would make it possible to halve the number of entries into hospitals.

Today, 27,931 people are still hospitalized due to Covid-19, including 3,842 in critical care. “This number of patients will remain”, admits the Scientific Council, pointing however to regional disparities to come. “Some areas in the south are already reaching peaks from previous waves,” he adds. Because behind these figures, another concern emerges: the deprogramming of non-Covid patients. For the Council, it will be “the new priority for the coming weeks.”

At the same time, and still in the fight against the health crisis, scientists recommend the continuation of the French strategy of mass screening. Last week, nearly 12 million tests were carried out according to figures from DREES. A record never equaled since the start of the pandemic. To this, as Prime Minister Jean Castex recalled this Thursday, vaccination retains a key role. Especially for the 5 million people who received no dose. The arrival of the vaccination pass should act in this direction, supports the opinion. Proof of this is already, more than a million French people have reached out for the first time since the announcement of this new device, underlined the head of government.

What about a fourth dose? For the time being, the Council remains suspended from the publication “solid scientific data” but the question is posed black on white: should it be authorized “now or after 2022?” However, in the future, “general measures restricting social activities now seem more difficult to consider, except in extreme situations”, note the scientists. Let us be reassured, we are therefore still far from confinement.