The big maneuvers are finally beginning for Orange. The incumbent operator delivered this Monday, before Arcep, its strategic plan to switch from the copper network to fiber by 2030. This is a challenge for the incumbent operator, long delegate of the universal service on this aging copper network, the maintenance of which amounts to 500 million euros per year. A far from negligible cost when, according to general opinion, keeping two networks – copper and fiber – on the territory is both an economic and environmental aberration.
However, the decommissioning of copper, which will cover more than 41.8 million premises by the end of 2030, promises not to be easy for the operator. The site will indeed be scrutinized very closely by the authorities, while the connectivity of certain territories – in particular Corsica, Drôme, Pays de la Loire or Ardèche – still depends essentially on ADSL (and therefore on copper). ), the deployment of the fiber being there only at its premises.
And if the construction site of the France THD plan – which intends to guarantee very high speed for all by 2022, at least 80% of which via fiber – has made headway and the players responsible for the deployment of fiber have already connected 28.3 million French locals (i.e. 67% of the total locals), the holes in the racket are still numerous… enough to lead the Orange staff to put the small dishes in the big ones to convince that the transition to fibre, necessary as it is, will go smoothly.
A step-by-step transition
In detail, the operator has identified several phases to carry out the work. First a transitional phase until 2025, the date set by the government to deploy fiber throughout the territory. During this period, Orange and its competitors will be able to carry out the experiments necessary for the transition to fiber with the aim of industrialising the switchover, organizing customer migrations and – more importantly – anticipating the shutdown by limiting the creation of new copper accesses.
After 2025, Orange is considering a closure phase, intended to “concretely close the network so that there are no longer any customers in copper service at the end of 2030”. “This phase aims in particular to stop the marketing of any new access on copper, technically close the network in an industrial logic and prepare the removal of certain elements of the network”, argues the management of Orange.
The shutdown of the copper network in a given territory will be done in two stages: after a notice period of 18 to 36 months, Orange will be able to initiate a first stage of commercial closure ending the provision of new access to commercial operators. Then will come a technical shutdown stage, which will correspond to the definitive interruption of all existing services on the copper network, both on the wholesale market and on the retail market.
The fact remains that a commercial closure can only take place if all the premises in a given zone are connected to FttH and at least one retail offer is available on all the premises that can be connected in the zone. With regard to the critical business market, this commercial closure can only be decided after the notice period if at least one FttH activated wholesale offer is available, that high-quality fiber wholesale offers comparable to SDSL offers are marketed and that the companies affected have at least one high-quality activated wholesale offer on FttH infrastructure.
A first shift from 2023
While Orange has already carried out initial experiments in several territories, the incumbent operator intends to carry out the first technical closures of 2.5 million premises between 2023 and 2025. The pace adopted by Orange to carry out the technical closures of the network copper will then accelerate. The operator’s staff thus plans to cut off access to copper for 3.8 million premises at the end of 2026, 6.3 million premises at the end of 2027, 8.4 million premises at the end of 2028 and 10.5 million of premises at the end of 2029 and the end of 2030.
It should be noted that the last stage of the copper switchover, including the removal of the copper network – which “could continue beyond 2030” – is still the subject of sustained reflection and that the hypothesis of leaving certain sections of the network in the state is not ruled out. Orange currently plans to dismantle the network and equipment “except for configurations that would not allow removal under reasonable technical or economic conditions (cables in the ground, certain distribution cables in very urban areas, private distribution)” .
If the plans presented by Orange seem well advanced, remains a question that annoys: that of financing. If the 21.5 million copper lines still active in France bring in nearly 2 billion euros per year to the incumbent operator, this sum is decreasing and should not be enough to finance the decommissioning of copper. Hence the idea put forward to increase unbundling rates, which is already causing opposition from Orange’s competitors.
The fact remains that the latter have until April 4 to be heard, the plan presented by Orange being submitted to a public consultation which should undoubtedly make it possible to further refine what promises to be a major project for the sector in over the next decade… and more if you like.