And seven! The oil markets have chained their seventh consecutive week of increases and are now up by more than 15% since January 1, 2022. Nothing seems to be able to reduce this upward pressure which is now pushing speculators to open long positions on future contracts with a delivery price at 100 USD, or even 125 USD at maturity December 2022. In other words, many investors foresee a barrel of oil above 100 USD this year. As for short-term catalysts, the event of the week was obviously the OPEC+ meeting, which ultimately offered little respite to the market. The expanded organization has effectively scheduled a further increase of 400,000 barrels per day for the month of March, but operators are struggling to give credit to this effort due to OPEC+’s difficulties in meeting its additional production commitments. Brent is trading at 92.7 USD against 91.3 USD for the American benchmark, WTI.
Gold regained a bit of height last week at 1817 USD, without however making a spark, despite the increase in volatility on the equity markets, which could have encouraged investors to take refuge in safe-haven assets. The weekly rise is more linked to the fall in the greenback, which makes an ounce of gold more attractive for “international” investors. Silver stalled at $22.9 an ounce. In industrial metals, nothing exciting happened this week due to the absence of Chinese traders who deserted the market for the Lunar New Year. As such, trading volumes and variations remained narrow. Note, however, the relaxation on aluminum prices, which are stabilizing above 3000 USD, thanks to the increase in deliveries of Russian gas to Europe, which is easing the pressure on European foundries.
On the soft commodities side, wheat and corn prices fell in Chicago to 771 and 636 cents per bushel respectively. Cocoa, on the other hand, continued to rise to USD 2,668 per tonne, an increase fueled by robust demand while supply remains compressed by the prospects of a modest harvest in Côte d’Ivoire due to a abnormally dry weather.