Starting to wonder what I could tell you about this morning, I came across a Reuters dispatch titled “The self-proclaimed Crocodile of Wall Street victim of a major bitcoin seizure”. This mysterious and vaguely destroy title prompted me to go read the content, then to document myself on this case. Finally document, let’s not exaggerate too much because it was 5:58 am and at that time, all my neurons are not connected. But before talking about the crocodile, a few words about the financial markets.
The decline in volatility was confirmed yesterday with gains reported across the stock marketexcept perhaps on the side of a Swiss SMI a little too weighted down by its defensive pillars. The VIX index has come down from its perch to fall below 22 points, below its level of January 18, after having signed a peak of 32 points. The VIX measures volatility and is often branded as the more sellable fear index: the higher it rises, the more the markets are shaken. Buybacks on the cheap have multiplied in most sectors, with a few exceptions including energy, a victim of the decline in oil prices and its gains of 15 to 20% since the start of the year. As often, the lower took the elevator and the higher the stairs. Balance sheet last night: the CAC40 has passed 7000 points and only shows a liability of 1.7% in 2022, the Nasdaq reduces its annual losses to less than 10%, US bond rates have ( a little) calmed down and oil retreated after its peaks of the weekend. In this environment, which seems to have calmed down compared to the last fortnight, the publication of company results continues at high intensity, even if quite a few of the leaders of the international rating have already passed the test. Macro statistics are relatively benignpending Friday the figures for US inflation in January.
But back to our crocodile. Apparently an American influencer, Heather Morgan, and her husband, sought to launder $4.5 billion worth of bitcoins and were pinched for it. I had to read the amount several times but it is indeed $4.5 billion. These bitcoins, numbering 119,754, were allegedly stolen in 2016 when the Bitfinex platform was hacked. At the time, they represented 71 million dollars, which is already a good sum. And therefore $4.5 billion now. Apparently the FBI has already recovered $3.6 billion. Morgan and her husband wouldn’t be the hacks, just the launderers, but I didn’t quite understand, due to lack of time, how they got their hands on the grisbi. The 31-year-old influencer presents herself as both an investor and an artist under her stage name Razzlekhan (an obscure reference to Genghis Khan). His creations, his raps or his advice on anything and everything have made him a public figure with obviously a hell of a melon. Over time, she found herself several nicknames, including that of “Wall Street crocodile”, which I have trouble placing in the stock market bestiary. Perhaps between the shark of finance and the wolf of Wall Street? I spare you the videos and tweets of the couple, already qualified as Bonnie & Clyde of cryptos. They appeared yesterday in court in New York but were released against $ 8 million in cumulative bail (about 179 bitcoins, if the American justice accepts them).
When I read such information and pile it with other equally mind-boggling, I can’t help but think that this whole blockchain ecosystem (cryptocurrencies, metaverses, NFTs and all that will follow) is off to a very bad start.. Laurent Pignot, our blockchain / Web3 specialist will surely laugh at me and try to convince me otherwise. Perhaps a question of generation. In an excellent article published last weekend, Charlie Warzel poses the fundamental question of whether the blockchain is the promised revolution or a sea serpent (or even worse, the stuff that will lead to the ultimate speculative financialization of all our digital life). He cites in particular this fairly well-known video of Bill Gates, interviewed on the interest of the Internet in 1995 by a mocking and frankly unconvinced David Letterman, to show that it is always difficult to apprehend phenomena of this magnitude. Warzel does not provide an answer to the question – he does not have a crystal ball – but he confronts a considerable amount of arguments that I warmly recommend you to read if you are wondering about the blockchain phenomenon. You won’t find anything on the crocodile of Wall Street on the other hand, which is more likely to occupy the people pages.
On the stairs, morale is good this morning, with leading indicators that are firmly anchored in the green. Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul and Sydney show good arrangements at the end of the course or at the end of the course.
Economic highlights of the day
December US Wholesale Stocks (4:00 p.m.) and DoE Weekly Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.) are on the agenda for the day.
The euro rose slightly to 1.1426 USD. The ounce of gold is firm at 1827 USD. Oil fell a few cents to $91.08 a barrel of Brent and $89.70 a barrel of WTI. The yield on US debt lost 2 points to 1.95% over 10 years. Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $43,465.
The main changes in recommendations
- Admiral: HSBC pass to retain bought aiming for 3300 GBp.
- Ambu: SEB goes from buy to hold aiming for 130 DKK.
- Brunello Cucinelli: Jefferies remains to be kept with a price target raised from 55 to 60 EUR. For
- Burberry: Jefferies remains to be kept with a price target raised from 2100 to 2200 GBp.
- Chemring: Barclays moves from overweight to weighted online by targeting 300 GBp.
- Epiroc: Goldman Sachs moves from buying to neutral targeting 215 SEK.
- Fiskars: SEB goes from holding to buying, targeting EUR 27.10.
- Hexaom: Societe Generale goes from holding to buying, targeting EUR 46.50.
- Idorsia: Jefferies remains long with a price target reduced from 30 to 29 CHF.
- Infotel: Oddo BHF starts monitoring outperformance by targeting EUR 72.
- JCDecaux: JP Morgan goes from overweight to neutral, targeting EUR 27.50.
- Kahoot: JP Morgan goes from neutral to overweight by targeting NOK 40.
- Nokian Renkaat: Jefferies remains long with a price target reduced from 37.50 to 35 EUR.
- Novartis: UBS remains neutral with a price target raised from 82 to 84 CHF.
- Outokumpu: Jefferies remains to be kept with a target price reduced from 6.50 to 6.25 EUR.
- Rightmove: JP Morgan goes from neutral to underweight by targeting 565 GBp.
- Saipem: Jefferies remains underperforming with a price target reduced from 1 to 0.80 EUR.
- The Weir Group: Goldman Sachs goes from neutral to long, targeting 2030 GBp.
- Volkswagen: Exane BNP Paribas goes from underperformance to neutral by targeting EUR 210.
In France
Company results
- Amundi published 2021 results that exceeded expectations. The cap of €2,000 billion was exceeded with the integration of Lyxor.
- Orpea published its annual revenues and a comment from its CEO, Philippe Charrier on the news. The group slips that its French nursing homes represent less than 25% of its income.
Important (and less important) announcements
- TotalEnergies provides consumer assistance measures.
- Euronext launches Tech Leaders, a segment dedicated to technology companies with pre and post-IPO services.
- Eurasia issues €15 million in bonds for a Parisian project.
- R3, subsidiary operator of DBT will deploy 43 ultra-fast charging stations with Norauto in Hauts-de-France and Grand Est.
- Ekinops presents a new compact OTN solution.
- Alpha MOS cooperates with the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers with the aim of participating in the establishment of international standards for odor detection devices.
- Osmozis signs a distribution partnership for OsmoKey locks with Bio Habitat (Bénéteau).
- Archos floats Medical Devices Venture on the stock market.
- Erytech expands its patent portfolio in the treatment of rare metabolic diseases.
- SEngine Precision Medicine and Oncodesign seal a partnership for the discovery of a new personalized treatment.
- Altamir, Toosla, Vente-Unique, Artmarket, Herige, Saint Jean, AST Groupe, have published their accounts and/or forecasts.
In the world
Company results
- ABN Amro will buy back €500m of shares after better than expected results.
- Adyen reveals half-year revenues slightly below expectations.
- Akzo Nobel misses its fourth quarter core profit forecast due to raw material costs.
- The results of Chipotle allow the title to gain more than 6% out of session.
- Equinor, with $4.4 billion in Q4 earnings, beat expectations and announced a dividend hike and $5 billion in share buybacks.
- Honda reports a 17% drop in operating profit in the third fiscal quarter, but exceeds expectations.
- Lyft loses 5.5% post-trading after its quarterly.
- Siemens Energy reported a net loss of €240m for the delayed Q1 of the new fiscal year, mainly due to difficulties at its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine unit.
Important announcements (and others)
- The Boeing Company is resuming deliveries to China after two difficult years.
- Microsoft may buy cybersecurity firm Mendiant, according to Bloomberg.
- Cerberus Capital sells 15 million Deutsche Bank shares.
- Toyota is cutting its annual production target due to chip shortages.
- Daimler Truck will replace Alstria Office in the MDAX from 11 February.
- EQT is preparing the sale of the French water services company Saur for €3 billion.
- Metall Zug sells its cable business to Komax.
- Main results publications : Toyota Motor, Walt Disney, L’Oréal, CVS Health, GlaxoSmithKline, Equinor, Uber, Adyen, Honda Motor, DSV, Evolution AB, Akzo Nobel, Siemens Energy, Amundi… The whole agenda here.
Readings