Vladimir Putin has decided. Put on the back foot by the Ukrainian counter-offensives, the Russian president has resolved to decree a form of mobilization of his population to replenish his sparse troops. “I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation to support our motherland, our sovereignty and its territorial integrity, and to ensure the security of our people and the people of the liberated territories”said the master of the Kremlin in a televised address, Wednesday, September 21.
Moscow’s stated objective is to find 300,000 men to send to Ukraine, where the Russian army has suffered heavy losses since February 24. Of the 120,000 to 150,000 soldiers massed at the borders before the conflict, only 5,937 were killed, said Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Minister of Defense, in an interview with the Rossiya 24 channel broadcast on Wednesday. An underestimated figure, believe military analysts, who rather evoke 20,000 to 30,000 dead on the front. According to the Pentagon, 70,000 to 80,000 Russian soldiers have been put out of action (killed, wounded or missing) in seven months of clashes.
On paper, finding 300,000 former military personnel is not at all insurmountable. In Russia, all men who have completed their military service are considered reservists. The only difference is the age limit up to which they can be recalled, which varies from 35 to 70 years, depending on the rank and military qualification.
In total, this represents a pool of twenty-five million people, said Sergei Shoigu. “Only military reservists, primarily those who have served in the armed forces and who have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up”nuanced the Russian president, no doubt wishing not to frighten his fellow citizens.
A management problem
The only ones exempt from this “partial mobilization” will be the employees of the national military industry, according to the presidential decree issued on Wednesday, in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s speech. However, the decree takes care to specify that this exemption only applies “during the period of work in these organizations”implying that there is no longer any possibility of escaping mobilization in the event of resignation.
It remains to know the real level of preparation of these reserves. Among former Russian soldiers, whether conscripted or enlisted, experts estimate that 200,000 have undergone military training since leaving service. “But only 5,000 of them train on a regular basis and can be considered to have real military aptitude”, assures Dimitri Minic, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Upgrading several hundred thousand reservists will therefore require time and resources, which the Russians do not necessarily have.
You have 47.12% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.