(CercleFinance.com) – Oddo believes that among the indirect effects of the war in Ukraine, the semiconductor production chain could be disrupted, which could potentially extend the current global shortage beyond 2023.
The analysis office indicates that Pfeiffer Vacuum is the least attractive value in the sector with a target of 185 E.
‘ It turns out that Ukraine supplies 70% of the world’s neon gas and 90% for American players. Neon is a gas used during the key stage in the production of semiconductors, namely (photo)lithography. The neon gas is used to produce UV light at 193nm and 248nm, needed to etch the transistors,’ says the analyst.
Oddo points out that ASML (the key player in lithography), which sources 20% of the gases used from Russia and Ukraine, has indicated that it is studying other sources of supply.
Similarly, STM has not observed any impact with its partners and suppliers, but is monitoring the situation very closely. As for Infineon, the company indicates that it is following a multi-sourcing strategy and has increased its stocks, the analyst said.
‘ We believe, however, that even if no one observes an impact at this stage, prices should, as during the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, increase significantly (at the time prices had been multiplied by 10) ‘.
‘The risk of a disruption in the supply of Neon and therefore the shutdown of a few production lines is a risk that we cannot totally exclude. However, the existence of precautionary stocks, the improvement of techniques which enable less gas to be consumed and the industry’s ability to rapidly diversify its sources of supply, as it has shown on several occasions in history of the industry, makes us rather optimistic at this stage’ adds Oddo.
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