François Kraus, director of the “Politics / News” pole of Ifop, analyzes for Paris Match last week our Ifop-Fiducial real-time presidential poll for Paris Match, LCI and Sud Radio.
Emmanuel Macron finds colors
While the President of the Republic had reached his lowest level last Friday (24%), his electoral potential is regaining color this week thanks to an upward dynamic which brings him this Friday, February 4 to a comfortable score: 25.5% voting intentions, a level similar to that measured exactly two weeks ago (January 21). No doubt benefiting from the tense international context (Malian and Ukrainian crises) and a domestic context marked by a relaxation of the constraints linked to the health crisis, the outgoing president maintains a position of balance which allows him to refuel his voters. of 2017 (72%) but also to capture a quarter of former Fillonist voters (23%, +4 points in one week). This dynamic is found in the second round with scores of voting intentions which give him a comfortable gap against these two challengers Marine Le Pen (11 points apart) and especially Valérie Pécresse, whom he distances for the first time by 12 points (56% versus 44%).
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A worrying air pocket for Valérie Pécresse’s campaign
After getting bogged down in a false flat all January around 16% of voting intentions, the right-wing candidate won this week by falling to 15% (-1.5 points in one week), i.e. the lowest score measured for Valérie Pécresse since her investiture (December 4, 2021) had propelled her to a low point (17/18%) placing her in a qualifying situation in the second round. With only 15% of voting intentions this Friday, February 4, the president of the Ile-de-France Region is now distanced by 3 points from Marine Le Pen, while this gap was only 1.5 points there. a week ago (January 28) and by 0.5 points two weeks ago (January 21). This downward trend is all the more worrying as it affects his electoral potential in the second round: his level of voting intentions fell to 44% this Friday (-1.5 points in one week), a score for the first time lower than that of the candidate of the National Rally (at 44.5%). Admittedly, the gap remains between the two opponents of Emmanuel Macron, but it symbolically takes away from him the place of the candidate best placed to beat the outgoing president and therefore his potential effect in terms of useful votes.
Status quo to the right of the right between Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour
The CNews polemicist managed to erase the losses caused by his controversial exit on the education of disabled children (January 14), twice this week finding the level which was his before this controversy (14%). However, it ended the week at 13.5% of voting intentions, ie a level strictly similar to that measured last Friday (January 28). In one week, the gap that distanced him from Marine Le Pen (4.5 points) therefore remains unchanged, a sign perhaps that the porosity between the two “national-populist” electorates is now finding limits.
On the left, a limited “primary” effect for Christiane Taubira but which seems to create an unfavorable context for the Jadot candidacy
After having stagnated throughout the month of January around 5 to 6% of voting intentions, Yannick Jadot passes this week for the first time below the 5% mark (4.5% this Friday February 4), i.e. the score the lowest measured for the EELV candidate since his inauguration (September 28, 2021). Christiane Taubira only benefits from this situation in a very limited way, her electoral potential only increasing by 0.5 points since the announcement of her investiture. The candidate supported by the PRG does not benefit from the electoral erosion of the Mayor of Paris, who falls this week to 2.5% of voting intentions, the lowest score in the history of the Fifth Republic. for a candidate invested by the Socialist Party in a presidential election. In this context, Fabien Roussel is doing well with a very stable score (at 3%) which seems to be spared by the downward trends affecting his socialist and environmentalist competitors.
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