Sergey Guriev is professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris, after having been chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) from 2016 to 2019. He is also familiar with the Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny, detained in prison since his return from medical treatment in Germany in January.
The summer of 2020, marked by the poisoning of the opponent Alexeï Navalny and the mass protests in Belarus, is it a turning point in the history of Putinism?
Every year, [le président Vladimir] Putin crosses new red lines. Since 2003 and the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky [ex-patron du groupe pétrolier Ioukos, détenu pendant dix ans], we keep saying that what is happening is unprecedented. Summer 2020 is part of this logic. In June and July, the popularity of the president was down in the polls, around 60%, while it exceeded 85% at the time of the annexation of Crimea, in 2014. At the start of the Covid pandemic- 19, Putin was content to support families with children, while Navalny, he had proposed to confine, but also to pay people when they stay at home. The latter said: “Since the state has money set aside for rainy days, let’s use it. “ This has earned him a lot of support. This is one of the reasons for his poisoning.
Why focus your analysis on Putin? Doesn’t the regime also have its own dynamics?
It is a complex system, but above all a personal institution. It is not like in Iran, where the religious dimension is decisive, or like in Turkey, where there are real parties, despite the predominance of [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan. In Moscow, the FSB [le service de sécurité intérieure, ex-KGB] is very powerful, but it is subject to internal struggles. In a case like Navalny’s, Putin is in charge. He can make mistakes, be misinformed, but he is the one who makes the decisions.
What lessons has Moscow learned from the protests in Belarus following the contested re-election of President Lukashenko on August 9, 2020?
Moscow was very concerned, while looking at Alexander Lukashenko with a certain contempt. This last underestimated the power of the Internet and the role of women, omnipresent in the protest. Belarusian President still lives in XXe century, believes the Putin regime, which does not make such mistakes: it has hordes of trolls and would never have accepted that taking part in the election the wife of an imprisoned candidate [telle Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa en Biélorussie].
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