Candidates for purchasing a home can relax a little. Mortgage rates have been falling since the start of the year. And even if this movement seems to have stalled in recent weeks, it should continue when the European Central Bank lowers its key rates in June, as it has suggested. The broker Pretto has calculated that the decline in mortgage rates has already given purchasing power back to those looking for a property.
After falling to 192,338 euros at the end of 2023, the borrowing capacity for a salary of 4,000 euros gross monthly stood at 200,819 euros at the end of March. However, it was 276,790 at the start of 2022, so the gain remains modest. To completely restore the purchasing power of borrowers, real estate prices would have to fall by… more than 25%, if we base ourselves on Pretto’s estimates.
We are far from it: they only fell by 3.1% in 2023 in the ten largest cities in France according to MeilleursAgents. And the latest studies show a stabilization of prices rather than an acceleration of the decline. Under these conditions, can we anticipate a lasting recovery in the housing market?
There are many factors to explain the level of real estate prices. The shortage of supply, in particular, which is cruelly felt in certain regions. The current owners are also not ready to agree to give up the proceeds of the sale that they could have hoped for just a few months ago.
They have even less incentive to sell if they have borrowed over the last ten years to complete their acquisition. Now, credits are more expensive to finance the next one.
Professionals in the sector, real estate agents or brokers want to believe that things will gradually return to order. However, it seems illusory to count on a strong market recovery without a further fall in prices. It is true that, apart from candidates for purchase, few people have an objective interest in it. Owners would not necessarily find what they are looking for there, any more than real estate agents and developers. Nor, moreover, local authorities and the State, which derive part of their revenue from the transactions carried out.