Reisner look at the front: “That’s where an F-16 makes a difference”

There is movement on the fronts in Ukraine, but no breakthroughs – neither for the Ukrainians nor the Russians. Now Kiev is to receive F16 fighter jets. In an interview, Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner explains how the plane will strengthen Ukraine – and what it means for the offensive.

ntv.de: Mr. Reisner, before we talk about the F16 – what has happened at the front in the past few days?

Markus Reisner: Overall, there was little movement. On the southern front, Ukraine has repeatedly tried to establish bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnipro. The Russians are trying to prevent this, and every Russian attack helicopter deployed there is absent elsewhere. At present, however, these bridgeheads hardly have any greater military significance. This is because they are in the floodplain of the river. So it is hardly possible to catch up on heavy equipment. In winter, when the ground is frozen, that could change. In the central area, however, there were definitely positive developments.

Which?

In the last 48 hours another town, Robotyne, north of Melitopol seems to have been occupied. That is the good news. The bad news, however, is that Ukraine is still fighting in the apron area. These, as well as the main positions, actually have to be breached in order to ultimately break through to the Sea of ​​Azov.

What’s it like in the Northeast?

South of Bakhmut there is fierce fighting with mutual advances, but no breakthrough on the Ukrainian side. On the other hand, further north in the Kupyansk area, the Russians tried to break through with the 1st Guards Tank Army. So far they have not succeeded.

So more patience is required.

We continue to experience a purgatory in which neither side breaks through. However, time is short for Ukraine if they want to advance to the Sea of ​​Azov to split up the Russian forces. In a few weeks the first muddy period will start, then the ground will be too soft for heavy equipment.

Let’s get to the F16. A single branch of arms does not bring the turning point, we have learned that in the meantime. But what effect will the F16 have?

The F16 is a robust, resilient multi-role fighter aircraft. It can be used with the appropriate load of air-to-air weapon systems against enemy combat aircraft or with air-to-ground weapons against enemy command posts, depots, anti-aircraft systems or the like. This increases Ukraine’s ability to regain control of its airspace. Let’s take the ground offensive as an example. If the Ukrainians had already had the F16, even in small numbers, that would have been very helpful. They could have kept the Russian attack helicopters at a distance so that they could no longer attack the advancing Ukrainian troops. Of course, a fighter plane like that makes a difference.

Could the F16 also carry the German Taurus cruise missile?

You have to see that. Basically, the F16 has the advantage of being able to carry a variety of western weapon systems. That was the problem with Soviet-built aircraft, that they first had to be laboriously converted to be able to carry western missiles such as Stormshadow or Scalp.

How much can one even expect if the F16 arrives no earlier than the turn of the year and then over the course of the coming year?

The big question is not so much the number of units or when the F16 will arrive, but the logistics behind it. Compared to the old Soviet models SU-24 or MiG 29, the F16 is far more complex to maintain. Unlike the Swedish Gripen, which can operate on very rough terrain and in areas that would not be possible for other aircraft. The F16 is much more complex. You need drop bases and technicians. And you have to constantly reckon with Russian attacks.

The pilots still have to be trained.

Senior US officers say the training will last 18 months but could be shortened to at least four months. However, the F16 is a very common aircraft, with around 2,500 still in service worldwide. That means there are hundreds, if not thousands, of trained pilots. I think you can quickly bring something together in a very short time.

You mean foreign pilots could join the Ukrainian Air Force?

It is conceivable that volunteers would join the Ukrainian armed forces and serve as pilots, as is the case with the international legion. Over the past few months, foreign pilots have repeatedly expressed their willingness to do so. Basically there is this possibility, whether it really comes to that, you have to see.

Does all F16 logistics have to be in Ukraine or could Ukrainian planes also take off in Poland, for example? There they would be safe from Russian missiles.

This is hard to imagine since Poland is in NATO. However, NATO absolutely wants to avoid the impression of becoming a party to the war itself. At the latest when Ukrainian planes fly in from a NATO country, this can no longer be dismissed out of hand. It would be different if repairs were carried out in a NATO country. This is already the case, for example with the Panzerhaubitze 2000 or the Leopard.

So it will be at least half a year, if not longer, before we see the F16 in action in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians say they don’t expect the pilots’ training to end until the first quarter of next year at the earliest, or even in the summer. The announcement now is important as a message for the Ukrainian soldiers: Hold on, there is another ability that will make the fight much easier for you. The problem with this is that until now, new types of weapons have always been delivered one after the other with a delay. These weapons can therefore not be used together in a network. We can see what this leads to in the current offensive.

This means that the F16 will no longer be able to intervene in the ongoing offensive. Wouldn’t it make more military sense to hold back now and then attack again next year when it becomes available?

This discussion is already being conducted in the leading English-language media, be it in the Washington Post, the New York Times, Politico or Forbes. Should Ukraine really use all its reserves now, or should it rather wait and perhaps set up its own defense? After all, significant forces were already used up during the offensive. According to the Oryx portal, for example, over 50 Bradley main battle tanks and 15 Leopard tanks have already been destroyed. In order to go back on the offensive, Ukraine must be repositioned for next spring. But if she uses up her powers now, that won’t be possible.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to ship more Iris-T systems, Cheetah and Patriot systems?

Ukraine needs what is necessary to defend the country and retake the occupied territories. In the case of anti-aircraft defense, there are still deficits in quantity. Good systems exist, but too few. The Ukraine has to secure the rear area in order to be able to build up industrial production again in order to be able to wage a longer war. These anti-aircraft systems can then also give the F16 the protective screen they need for attacks. At least regionally, Ukraine needs a certain degree of air sovereignty in order to be able to go on the offensive again next spring. For this, material would have to be delivered again. These decisions should be made quickly for this to be possible at all.

Germany still has a few Eurofighters in the garage that are to be retired. They’re not in good shape anymore, but that’s what the Leopard-1 said, too. Do you think it would make sense to get them going again?

I can only quote what the Ukrainian side says. For them, the F16 has priority. Second is the Gripen because it’s so versatile. The Eurofighter only comes in third place. Like the F16, it has the big problem that it also requires very complex logistics. It has to be operated in a fixed location and then it would have to be secured again from Russian attacks. Maintaining two logistics chains would be very impractical. The history of war is full of examples where logistics made the difference between victory and defeat.

Volker Petersen spoke to Markus Reisner