Right agitator on approach
Will Tucker Carlson Twitter Doom?
By Juliane Kipper
5/11/2023 5:53 p.m
So far, all attempts by Elon Musk to increase Twitter revenue have failed. And that’s not all: the advertising partners are also running away from the tech billionaire. The moderator Tucker Carlson should probably change that. But the calculation threatens not to add up.
Tucker Carlson had the best ratings of any US news network evening anchor. His prime-time show on the Fox News channel was watched by around three million viewers every evening. The right-wing agitator’s announcement of a new show on Twitter could nonetheless pose a financial risk for Elon Musk’s new toy. Namely, when advertisers jump off. But according to Sandra Navidi, the tech billionaire is willing to pay this price. “Musk is less concerned with a cooperation with Carlson than with commercial interests and more with the legitimacy and dissemination of ultra-right ideology,” says the managing director of Beyond Global ntv.de.
The fact that the influential moderator is attracting users to the platform at a staggering rate has already been proven by his announcement clip, which has been viewed more than 78 million times so far. Carlson was one of the most famous faces of Fox News and always caused scandals – and high ratings. The moderator is known for spreading conspiracy theories, blatant hoaxes and lashing out at minorities.
Carlson was fired from Fox News in late April. The split comes less than a week after the historic settlement between Fox News and voting machine company Dominion over false voter fraud allegations following the 2020 presidential election. Fox agreed to pay nearly $788 million. Carlson’s name had surfaced repeatedly in connection with Dominion’s defamation lawsuit against Fox News.
Advertising environment reacts rigorously
“By Fox taking the host off the network without releasing him from his contract, Tucker can now portray himself as a martyr to be politically sidelined. That only gives him more power,” says Navidi. The talk show host, who has repeatedly appeared in his show as a supporter of former US President Donald Trump, was recently said to have his own political ambitions. Should he really be in enter the White House race, she believes Musk would also be a powerful behind-the-scenes puller.
How rigorously companies react to changes in the advertising environment became apparent shortly after Musk took over Twitter. His decision to relax content moderation rules in the name of freedom of expression drew criticism from many companies: In just one month, the tech billionaire lost half of its top 100 advertisers. In the context of fake news and hate messages, many no longer wanted to advertise. Advertisers, who have invested $2 billion in Twitter since 2020, put their ads on hold. The fact that Carlson, whose Fox News show has been shunned by mainstream advertisers, is now getting a forum on Twitter could further hurt the platform’s business.
In a recent interview with the BBC, Musk claimed that most advertisers had returned to the platform. According to “Business Insider”, however, data from the US market research company Insider Intelligence indicate that far fewer companies are placing ads again than Musk claims. “Tucker Carlson’s show is another example of Musk turning a deaf ear to advertisers’ concerns about moderation of content under the guise of freedom of expression,” Semafor quoted Lou Paskalis, chief strategist at media watchdog Ad Fontes, as saying . Musk is an “undisputed master of self-inflicted wounds” in this regard.
No details about Carlson’s show are known on Twitter yet. In his short video statement, however, he railed against the “mainstream media” and emphasized that “freedom of expression is the most important right” that people have. Observers therefore consider it likely that Tucker wants to share thoughts and opinions on Twitter that even Fox News had no place for.
Twitter is currently worth just $42 billion
In response to Carlson’s announcement, it seemed important to the otherwise eloquent Musk to make one thing clear above all: “We haven’t signed any kind of contract whatsoever.” The same rules and remuneration apply to Carlson as to everyone else. According to media reports, Carlson and Musk had previously met to explore a collaboration. In order to take the wind out of the sails of possible critics in advance, he also makes it clear in his statement: On Twitter, people are able to interact, criticize and refute whatever is said. He even calls on “left” movers and shakers to follow in Carlson’s footsteps.
So far, all of Musk’s attempts to boost Twitter’s revenue have failed. For example, Twitter Blue, the paid verification program, has barely attracted any subscribers — certainly not enough to make up for the loss of advertisers. Musk is said to have recently written in an email to his remaining employees that Twitter could one day be worth up to $250 billion. The company’s market value is currently around $42 billion.
For years, Carlson was Fox News’ biggest revenue generator in US news television. That should give Musk a lot of optimism. In 2018, the moderator generated $190 million in revenue, about 16 percent of the station’s total revenue. But Carlson’s advertising revenue also fell significantly in the years that followed. The year 2021 marked the low point with around 67 million dollars in advertising sales. More and more companies no longer wanted to advertise in the Carlson environment. It is quite possible that Twitter could soon face a similar fate.