RTL/ntv trend barometer
Habeck is crawling up to Merz, Wagenknecht’s party is gaining ground
March 12, 2024, 12:32 p.m
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As was the case at the beginning of February, it could be enough for Sahra Wagenknecht’s newly founded party to enter the Bundestag. Otherwise there is little happening for the parties, but the trend barometer shows surprising developments among the Greens.
The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party receives sufficient support in the new RTL/ntv trend barometer to enter the Bundestag. The BSW therefore climbs by one percentage point to 5 percent approval, where the party was already in the first half of February. The Union loses one point, but remains above the psychologically important 30 percent mark. The remaining parties achieved the same values as in the previous week. The increase in reputation of the Green Party’s top politicians Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck is surprising. When it comes to chancellor preference, the Vice Chancellor is almost on a par with opposition leader Friedrich Merz from the Union.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 30 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 17 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 15 percent (25.7 percent). percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), BSW 5 percent (-), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), Left 3 percent (4.9 percent), the Free Voters 3 percent (2.4 percent ).
8 percent of voters would choose other parties. At 26 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided people is higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
In the struggle for the next chancellorship, the Green Robert Habeck is crawling closer to CDU leader Friedrich Merz. The Federal Minister of Economics climbs by one point to 19 percent, Merz falls by two points to 21 percent. Incumbent Olaf Scholz stagnates at 15 percent when asked about his preference for chancellor.
If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wanted to win the Chancellery for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would also get 19 percent – an increase of two points compared to the previous week. Merz loses two points in this comparison of possible candidates for chancellor and ends up at 24 percent. Scholz is again at 18 percent in this trial.
The CDU and CSU would be best able to deal with the problems in Germany, say 16 percent of those surveyed. That is two percentage points less than the previous week. The SPD and the Greens follow with an unchanged 7 percent. The AfD has lost one point and is now at 6 percent
The FDP again came in at 2 percent, while other parties were mentioned by 3 percent of those surveyed. 59 percent of those surveyed did not specify a party.
The most important topic last week was the war in Ukraine, mentioned by 61 percent of those surveyed, followed by the federal government with 30 percent mentioned. War in Ukraine (35). The economic situation and price increases came in third place with 24 percent, followed by the Middle East conflict (20 percent), the strikes (11 percent) and the US elections (10 percent).
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between March 5th and 11th. Database: 2502 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.