Wednesday April 14, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
Union does not create a trend reversal
The K-question should be resolved soon, but nothing is moving with the bad polling values of the Union. Söder can expand his popularity lead over Laschet again. Baerbock is also catching up and leaving Habeck behind.
Shortly before the chancellor candidate question is resolved, the Union is still unable to reverse the trend in favor of the voters. In the current RTL / ntv trend barometer, it stagnates at 27 percent in the third week, and the Greens and SPD also stick to the values from the previous week. The Left and the AfD each gain one percentage point, the FDP and the other smaller parties each lose one percentage point.
If the Bundestag were to be re-elected now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU / CSU 27 percent (Bundestag election 32.9 percent), SPD 15 percent (20.5), FDP 9 percent (10.7), Greens 23 Percent (8.9), left 8 percent (9.2), AfD 11 percent (12.6). 7 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2). At 23 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided people roughly corresponds to the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8).
It’s not enough for the Groko
719 MPs would move into the new Bundestag according to the current voting intentions. The seats would be distributed among the parties as follows: Union 211, Greens 177, SPD 115, FDP 69, Linke 62, AfD 85. Only the Greens would win mandates compared to the previous federal election – an increase of 110 seats. All other parties can expect to lose their mandate.
360 seats would be needed for a majority capable of governing. Accordingly, the Union and the Greens could form a government with a total of 388 mandates, but a “traffic light” coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP would also be possible with 361 mandates. It would not be enough for the currently ruling “grand coalition” or for Green-Red-Red.
In the fight for the candidacy for chancellor between CDU leader Armin Laschet and CSU chairman Markus Söder, a decision should be made by the end of the week. The level of support for the opponents varies in their respective home countries. In Bavaria, the CSU could currently expect 39 percent of the vote in a federal election – that’s just as much as in the 2017 federal election (38.8).
In North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU would currently achieve 26 percent, a decrease of 6.6 percent compared to the 2017 election result (32.6). The Greens would grow by 17.4 percent in NRW and come to 25 percent, they are on par with the ruling CDU. In Bavaria, the Greens would currently achieve 22 percent, an increase of 12.2 percent compared to the 2017 election.
Söder and Baerbock are growing
If the German citizens could elect their chancellor directly, Markus Söder would still have the best prospects compared to all other candidates and would improve again compared to the previous week. Against Robert Habeck and Olaf Scholz, Söder would have 39 percent (plus 1 percentage point). Habeck would come to 18 (minus 1), Scholz to 14 percent (plus 1).
If Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz were the opposing candidates, 39 percent would still choose Söder. Baerbock would have 21 (plus 1), Scholz 14 percent (unchanged).
Söder’s opponent in the fight for the Union candidate for chancellor would continue to do worse than the CSU boss. Against Habeck and Scholz, Armin Laschet would lose a percentage point compared to the previous week and would come to 16 percent. Habeck would be unchanged at 22 percent, Scholz at 18 percent (plus 1). Against Baerbock and Scholz, Laschet would also have 16 percent. Baerbock would achieve 23 percent (unchanged), Scholz would reach 18 percent (plus 1).
According to this, Annalena Baerbock was able to catch up with her co-chairman Robert Habeck in the electoral favor over the past four weeks and has now even overtaken him. At the beginning of the coming week, the Greens want to announce who they are sending in the race for the Chancellery. Both have ambitions for the top position, but have successfully avoided a power struggle based on the Union model.
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