The Ukrainian lightning offensive in Kharkiv province exposed the catastrophic weaknesses of the Russian occupiers. If Putin cannot take countermeasures immediately, he risks falling into a military and political vicious circle.
Russia fires rockets at the city of Kharkiv almost every day. But Moscow has so far been powerless against the Ukrainian offensive to the east.
For months, the Kremlin has been making the same comment when it comes to the campaign in Ukraine: “Everything is going according to plan.” Since this plan was always hidden from the public, the opposite could never be proven. Embarrassing setbacks might be suffered by Russia’s troops—in the infinite wisdom of Moscow’s rulers, all of this might have already been factored in. At least that’s what uncritical minds in Russia could convince themselves. But what is happening now in Ukraine cannot possibly correspond to any Russian plan.
A turning point in Ukraine?
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive in the north-east of the country this week, taking the occupying forces completely by surprise. In just three days, they recaptured an area the size of the canton of Zurich. The weak Russian resistance reveals that no one in Moscow planned for such a scenario, let alone ordered precautions in good time. Putin’s rule in north-eastern Ukraine has faltered.
Has a turning point now been reached in this war? After a widespread military stalemate, is a new phase beginning in which the Ukrainians are gaining the upper hand? That is possible, but it cannot yet be answered with certainty. Moscow is rapidly sending reinforcements to the region and still has a chance of stopping the enemy offensive or even reversing the loss of territory. However, the mobilization of motivated, well-trained troops has always been a weakness of the Russian army.
For Putin, the latest development is devastating. First, its record for the past few months looks even more embarrassing than before: Russia now controls less Ukrainian territory than it did in April, at the start of the second phase of the war, when Moscow began to focus on the east of the country. Secondly, there is now a threat of a military domino effect. Because of the Ukrainian advance, the main supply route from Russia to the front in northern Donbass – via the Kupyansk road and railway junction – has been cut off.
Although there are detour routes, they are also vulnerable. That should weaken Russian forces in the region. The large contingent at the strategically important bridgehead near Isjum was even threatened with encirclement.
Third, the movement of troops, even if it can halt the Ukrainian offensive in the short term, has negative consequences elsewhere. The breakthrough on the Donbass front near Bakhmut and Donetsk, which Moscow has long hoped for, is now becoming less likely. Fourth, Putin cannot offer any credible perspective as to how the war could suddenly turn in Russia’s favor given the current course.
What Putin has been trying to suppress for months seems to be getting closer: a fateful decision between retreat or “total war”. The latter would require a mobilization of conscripts, which the Kremlin wants to avoid for fear of its own people.
Shattered illusions
Hardly anything is going “according to plan” at the moment. The Kremlin recently had to cancel the holding of referendums on the annexation of the occupied territories to the Russian Federation. The intention to impose a ceasefire agreement on Ukraine according to Moscow’s wishes is also revealed to be an illusion.
Recent events also refute those voices in the West who demonize arms deliveries to Kyiv and arrogantly recommend that Ukraine give in to Russia’s territorial demands. Forgotten are all those Ukrainians who have been living under a Russian reign of terror for months and who are now jubilantly greeting the Ukrainian liberators in Kharkiv province. What has happened is exactly what proponents of arms sales to Kyiv prophesied: Western war material is instrumental in tipping the balance in Ukraine’s favor and putting Kyiv in a better position for future peace negotiations.