RWE boss warns of risks
Is there a risk of a gas shortage in the cold?
By Christina Lohner
December 4, 2023, 5:52 p.m
A particularly cold winter would continue to catapult Germany into a gas shortage. Despite the current temperatures, meteorologists and storage operators are hopeful. However, security of supply is still threatened by another danger.
Southern Germany in particular is drowning in snow. Minus 24 degrees were measured in the Bavarian Forest at night, and minus 18 degrees in the outskirts of Munich, for example at the airport. It wasn’t this cold there all of last winter, and the cold is continuing for the time being. In addition to the acute risk of black ice, is there now also a risk of a gas shortage? Both meteorologists and storage operators are giving the all-clear for now – but only if consumers continue to save diligently. Another risk has not been averted either.
“The low temperatures in the last few days have led to a significant increase in daily gas consumption in Germany,” reports Sebastian Heinermann in response to a query from ntv.de. The managing director of the Energy Storage Initiative (INES), an association of operators of German gas and hydrogen storage facilities, explains that Germany hardly exported any gas on the affected days. Imports from other countries also fell significantly because their consumption also increased. Germany now sources the majority of its gas imports from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium.
According to Heinermann, in order to meet the high demand, large quantities were withdrawn from Germany’s gas storage facilities; on November 30th these already covered almost half of consumption. However, customers continued to save and November was relatively mild. The storage operators are therefore optimistic about the gas supply for the rest of the winter.
A very cold winter would cause gas consumption to increase so much that, according to the Federal Network Agency, there would be a risk of a shortage. Despite the Arctic cold, this risk is currently not great, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander explains. According to long-term forecasts, December could be a little too cold compared to the long-term average. However, February is likely to be too mild. The forecasts for January vary, but “all in all, we can expect a winter that is rather mild,” says Björn Alexander. Even if it has “definite potential for ice-cold periods”, especially in December and January.
Gas consumption is critical
The Federal Network Agency currently rates the temperature forecast as critical because the thermometer shows values well below the average of the past five years. Even when adjusted for temperature, the authority classifies gas consumption as critical. Compared to the years before the Ukraine war, less than ten percent have been saved. The experts only see a stable situation when temperature-adjusted savings are more than 20 percent. Given the well-filled storage facilities, the gas supply is still considered stable.
In addition to the necessary savings for consumers, there remains another potential risk: the loss of deliveries, both to Germany and to other countries. Germany would have to supply Southeast Europe if Russia were to stop its remaining deliveries there.
RWE boss Markus Krebber is currently warning of such delivery bottlenecks. In order to be prepared for failures of pipelines or import terminals, Europe must increase its import capacities, demands the power plant operator “Financial Times”. He had already warned of supply risks for Germany. Germany lacks the necessary reserves, Krebber told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung”.
LNG excess capacity for emergencies
A long-term failure of important natural gas deliveries from Norway, for example due to an act of sabotage against pipelines, would be particularly problematic, according to the head of Germany’s largest electricity producer. “Then we would have much higher gas prices again and probably also problems with supply shortages.” The pure amount of storage is only enough for a good two winter months, and constant deliveries are also necessary. RWE also stores and trades gas.
At least for this year, gas market expert Sebastian Gulbis shares the RWE boss’s assessment that more LNG capacities would be desirable. “At the moment they are not enough to compensate for Russian gas,” explains the partner at the energy consulting company Enervis in an interview with ntv.de. However, further import options for liquid gas are planned until 2026, both in Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands as well as in Germany. “The supply is currently on edge, but that will ease towards 2026,” predicts Gulbis.
“Don’t heat the apartment to 23 degrees”
Then it must be examined how sustainably customers save and to what extent additional import capacities are necessary. The market expert also believes that a certain amount of excess capacity is necessary in order to be prepared for a delivery failure. Gulbis recommends taking into account the failure of the largest infrastructure. In Germany these would be the pipelines that carry Norwegian gas to Germany.
He believes that the short-term savings potential in the industry has been exhausted. The market expert attributes the recent increase in gas consumption compared to the previous year not only to the lower temperatures, but also to the currently comparatively cheap tariffs. He fears that consumers have lost sight of the risk of a gas shortage and advises economy: “Before there are forced shutdowns, we should not heat our homes to 23 degrees.”