Sabotage or coincidence?: Series of fires in Russia raises questions

Sabotage or coincidence?
Series of fires in Russia raises questions

By Kai Stoppel
05/04/2022 8:42 p.m

Since the attack on Ukraine, reports of fires in strategically important locations across Russia have been mounting. It is unclear whether the fires are related. However, there is already speculation about the possible causes of the series of fires.

A series of explosions and fires at strategic locations across Russia has caused a stir since the start of the Ukraine war. Important armaments factories and military facilities are affected. At least three people were killed in a fire in a munitions factory in the city of Perm in the Urals on Monday. Whether there is a connection between the fires is still completely open.

The recent fires in fuel depots and ammunition depots in cities such as Belgorod, Bryansk and Voronezh seem somewhat explainable. These are no more than 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, making it conceivable that Ukrainian missiles or planes could attack them. According to Russian sources, an attack with three Tochka-U rockets triggered the explosion in an ammunition depot in Belgorod at the end of March. Moscow blamed two Ukrainian helicopters for the fire in the oil storage facility there in early April. Ukraine generally denies such allegations.

However, there are also fires in strategic locations that are beyond the reach of Ukrainian missiles, helicopters and drones. On April 21, a devastating fire broke out at a research institute of the Russian Missile Forces in the city of Tver, northwest of Moscow – more than 500 kilometers from Ukraine. The institution is considered a central institute of the Ministry of Defense and was involved in the development of the Iskander missile, which Russia is currently using intensively in the war against Ukraine. According to the Russian state agency Tass, the fire could have been caused by outdated electrical cables. After there was initially talk of six deaths, the number of victims had increased to a total of 20 by the end of April, according to the media.

Another fire occurred on the same day at one of the country’s largest chemical plants. The Dimitrevsky factory in Kineshma, more than 300 kilometers east of Moscow, is an important producer of solvents for Russia and Eastern Europe. At the same time, fuels are produced there that are important for the construction of precision-guided missiles that Russia needs for the Ukraine war.

Warehouse of controversial publisher on fire

Then on Tuesday, a huge warehouse in Moscow went up in flames. The special thing about it: According to media reports, the camp is used by the Russian publishing house Prosveshcheniye (“Enlightenment”), which publishes school books. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the publisher made headlines with the decision wanting to erase Ukraine from Russian textbooks. The publisher will also reportedly headed by Putin friend Arkady Rotenberg.

The series of fires is a mystery. Is it an unfortunate coincidence or does sabotage play a role? And if the latter is the case, who could be behind it? And is there a connection with the war in Ukraine?

Strategy consultant Marcus Ewald counts Twitter a number of possible explanations that are currently under discussion. For example, that a resistance movement within Russia could be responsible for the fires. “This is supported by the fact that all buildings are immensely important and require insider knowledge,” writes Ewald. “An argument against this is that this would mean very complex and diverse coordination and infiltration.” Another possible cause: The fires could be used to cover up corruption, since funds may have been diverted and penalties are now threatened due to investigations.

Ewald also cites wear and tear as a hypothesis for the fire series. “There is a lack of spare parts and software support everywhere, factories in particular drive on wear and tear of parts and also people.” Dmitri Alperovitch, chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank, pointed out to the “Washington Post” pointed out that accidental fires are not uncommon in Russia. The country is notorious for poor maintenance, and Western sanctions are making it difficult to source spare parts for vital machinery.

“Probably a colorful mix of everything”

“In addition to wear and tear, employees’ motivation to pay attention to safety and orderly operations could have fallen sharply,” Ewald wrote on Twitter. He refers to this as “passive sabotage”. The Russian secret service FSB could also be behind the fires. “Someone in the FSB could have an interest in the war ending and Putin leaving. The argument against this is that the buildings are all so important that no patriot can want that.” Ewald considers it far less likely that the fires were caused by Ukrainian or US secret services. The necessary secrecy, infiltration and coordination is too complex.

Cyber ​​attacks or secret US satellites that use a “previously unknown radiation weapon” to ignite buildings, Ewald considers the least likely. So far, however, there is little evidence of the actual background to the fires. “I guess in reality it’s a colorful mix of everything,” says Ewald.