Summer vacation 2021: finally out again! How we will travel

Jana Buhl has not sold many trips in the past few weeks. Normally, your customers would have long since booked their annual vacation with the Berlin travel agent. But now they will first seek advice. Many do not yet want to make a binding booking of a trip. "Understandably, customers are currently still very cautious and try to book as late as possible," Buhl said in an interview with DW. Like the entire tourism industry, she therefore has great hopes for the vaccination.

The travel industry wants back lost trust

According to surveys, Germans have a great desire to travel, but their concerns are even greater. In December, revenue from advance bookings for package tours for summer 2021 was 68% percent below the previous year's level. And according to travel associations, demand for the time around Easter has so far been cautious. A trend reversal only becomes apparent after Pentecost. For the summer, the booking numbers are even slightly better than after the outbreak of the pandemic last spring, says Jürgen Schmude, Professor of Tourism Economics at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, to DW.

The trust of their customers is essential for the travel industry. In the spring and summer of 2020, pictures of return campaigns and stranded tourists went around the world. That put off many customers. There are now regulations such as the free cancellation of package tours for travel warnings for the holiday destination. That gives travelers more security, said Schmude. The tour operators have also been luring people with generous conditions and cheap offers for weeks. But for many, the uncertainty and the question: where can I travel in summer? And what can I expect there?

Those who book a trip want security

Admittedly, most predictions are a glimpse into the crystal ball. New virus mutations, difficulties in obtaining vaccines, debates about a European vaccination certificate, existing travel warnings and constantly changing entry conditions make precise forecasts impossible. Since January 31, entry bans have even been in effect in Germany for countries in which virus variants are widely spread, including popular holiday destinations such as Portugal, Ireland or South Africa. The travel industry can currently only dream of planning security.

Despite all the imponderables, one thing is certain: Most people will (have to) travel differently than usual. Long-distance travel remains – with a few exceptions – the exception for the time being. And even if bookings have already been made for Spain and Greece for the summer months, many holidaymakers could refrain from traveling within Europe this year. And that although two thirds of Germans prefer to spend their annual vacation abroad.

In addition to possible quarantine requirements, the attractiveness of a holiday area this year will also depend on the number of corona infections and the vaccination rate on site. "The security aspect, which previously played a minor role, has become extremely important for vacationers," says tourism researcher Schmude. He therefore assumes that, similar to 2020, the majority of holidaymakers will travel within Germany. This is also confirmed by a survey by the market research institute YouGov last December. There, 40 percent of those surveyed said they were planning a trip in their own country in 2021.

It's getting tight in the Alps and on the coasts

This means a ray of hope for the German tourism industry, which has been badly hit by the pandemic, whose sales fell by 61 percent in the first nine months of 2020, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Ingrid Hartges, managing director of the Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga), is confident in an interview with DW: "Even after the lockdown last spring, people had an incredibly great need to go to a café, to a restaurant and to go on vacation . I am convinced that if we are allowed to reopen, we will again have great demand from our guests ".

Similar to last summer, the south of Germany and the coastal regions should benefit in particular. According to the German Holiday House Association, popular destinations in the Alps and on the North and Baltic Seas are already around 60 percent occupied during the main tourist season in July and August. The rush there in Corona summer 2020 was sometimes so great that the travel destinations were completely overloaded. Fully booked hotels, overcrowded beaches, crowds in the mountains, annoyed residents: Overtourism in Germany. The tourism industry will have to find solutions this summer, says tourism researcher Schmude. But the guests are also in demand. You could avoid the hotspots this summer and look for offers in other regions.

Still in trend: sustainable travel

Wherever it goes, sustainable travel, whether hiking, cycling or camping holidays, is the trend. Sales of bicycles, mobile homes and campervans exploded last year. When it comes to accommodation, too, travelers are increasingly relying on holiday apartments and campsites instead of the large hotels. "Vacation homes and mobile homes were absolutely ahead of the game last summer because you could travel and retreat to your own four walls at the same time," says travel agent Jana Buhl. She assumes that this trend will continue this summer.

Tourism researcher Jürgen Schmude also sees a growing interest in sustainable travel due to the corona pandemic: "Outdoor and nature tourism already had increasing demand before the corona, the pandemic then acted like a catalyst again". The demand for air travel and cruises, however, has collapsed and will not come back anytime soon.

The chances are good that this trend will solidify not only this summer but also beyond the pandemic. A third of the respondents said in surveys that they wanted to change their travel behavior compared to before the pandemic, says Jürgen Schmude. "Many have discovered travel destinations in Germany that they hadn't even thought about before", Jana Buhl explains the phenomenon. She hopes that traveling through Corona will experience a new appreciation – also in terms of sustainability. According to tourism researcher Jürgen Schmude, there is no getting around it: "The discussion about overtourism, flight shame and cruises has been overwhelmed by Corona. But it has not gone, it continues."

Author: Felix Schlagwein

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The original for this post "How do we travel in summer 2021?" comes from Deutsche Welle.