Tehran’s playing with fire
Iranian attack could prove to be a win-win situation for Israel
From Tal Leder, Tel Aviv
April 16, 2024, 3:35 p.m
Listen to article
This audio version was artificially generated. More info | Send feedback
Tehran was the big beneficiary of the Gaza war. But the Iranian attack on Israel could prove to be a strategic mistake. The shadow war threatens to escalate.
A Persian proverb says: Patience is a tree whose roots are bitter but whose fruits are sweet. For the Iranian mullah regime, this is at least a hope with regard to Israel, or more precisely: with a view to the destruction of Israel. Because the destruction of the Jewish state by 2040 is nothing less than Iran’s official state doctrine.
With this perspective, the Iranian government is likely to see time on its side, because a long military campaign by Israel in Gaza offers advantages for Tehran. First of all, because the country’s forces are so tied up. The high cost of the Israeli military campaign alone makes a war against Iranian allies and henchmen like the Lebanese Hezbollah less likely. But with Iran’s major attack, the arch-enemies’ conflict threatens to enter a new phase.
“This is a historic event,” explains Avi (not his real name), a former Shin Bet employee. “It was the first time that Iran attacked Israel directly from its own territory. The mullahs’ regime had to show strength after the Israeli attack in Damascus.” The strike on the Jewish state with more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles is seen as an act of revenge for the same attack on April 1st. Israel killed a high-ranking general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and other members of the regime.
“Iran benefited the most”
Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, Tehran and Jerusalem have been hostile to each other, and since then a war has been raging in secret, mainly through Iran’s proxies and henchmen in the region. This also includes the barbaric massacre of civilians in Israel on October 7, 2023, carried out by the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, which led to the current Gaza war. Hamas is the main Sunni member of the mainly Shiite, Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance.” Hamas’s attack on Israel has made Iran a beneficiary.
“Iran benefited the most from the armed conflict in Gaza,” says Moshe Salomon, a former negotiator in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. “By supporting their proxies and allies, they have undermined not only the image of an invulnerable Jewish state, but also the growing chance for reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Tehran will seek to use the Gaza war to bully other states in the war “Dissuade the Middle East from deepening relations with Israel.”
Diplomatic initiatives against Israel
Tehran has already used the conflict to talk to Lebanon, Syria and Qatar about expanding bilateral relations. Senior Iranian politicians launched an intensive campaign in the Middle East aimed at strengthening their own ties with Arab states based on growing negative sentiment toward Israel. What stands out are the deepening of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia – actually Iran’s rival in the region – and a rapprochement with Egypt.
“Iran is on the diplomatic offensive,” says Salomon. “They have even exerted their influence in the so-called Global South, where countries such as South Africa and Nicaragua are suing Israel at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. States, which make up 60 percent of the population in this group, have either direct or indirect legal action in this group Matter supported.”
Disinformation campaigns in and against Israel
After Iran’s leadership gave Hamas the green light to carry out the brutal massacre in Israel, the Iranian government launched its anti-Semitic propaganda and disinformation campaign to demonize the Jewish state. This also includes financing and organizing worldwide mass demonstrations calling for the destruction of Israel. Iranian propaganda aims to spread anti-Israel messages in the West so that their relationship with the US and the EU will worsen.
“It is almost even more important for Tehran to divide Israeli society,” says Meir Javedanfar, a political scientist at Reichman University in Herzliya. “Especially last year, during the demonstrations against judicial reform, when tensions in the Jewish state intensified. The mullahs’ regime has tried to deepen this divide with disinformation.”
According to the Middle East expert, Iranian agents are using fake Israeli social media profiles to incite one side against the other. According to Shin Bet, the Islamic Republic has used fake online accounts to recruit Israel’s citizens for espionage. “They will continue this campaign,” says Javedanfar. “Iranian secret services are intensifying their activities there. Also their cyber attacks on Israel, which have increased since October 7th.”
The shadow war threatens to escalate
Although Tehran is hailing its weekend midnight offensive as a major victory, it did little damage. Israeli anti-aircraft defenses neutralized 99 percent of the rockets, and even states like Jordan helped.
“If Israel does not plan a retaliation, the Iranian attack can be viewed as a win-win situation,” says Avi, the ex-agent. “Although Tehran has restored its honor, it inadvertently gave Jerusalem the first strategic success in this war, because it has brought Israel closer to Washington again. Such a danger also unites the people and could even help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to gain power remain.”
Iran’s “Ring of Fire” strategy is actually intended to encircle Israel with terrorist groups. But the Jewish state could now find itself forced to retaliate and attack important points such as ports, refineries and also the nuclear facilities in the mullahs’ state. Many see a turning point. The shadow war threatens to escalate.
“We are on the edge of a dangerous abyss,” fears Moshe Salomon. “Since the Hamas attack, the Middle East has been threatening to explode. There is a lack of decisive deterrence against the mullahs.” Despite Iran’s long-term plan, it does not believe in a nuclear holocaust. He knows his country’s determination should its existence be at stake. “October 7th was something like Israel’s Pearl Harbor,” says Salomon. “But December 7, 1941 was the beginning of the end of the Japanese Empire. The Islamic Republic will also know that.”