Tensions between Westerners and Russians over the Ukrainian issue have not subsided despite the multiplication of talks. A few days before Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Moscow, Harold Hyman, journalist with the international service of CNEWS, deciphers the stakes of the crisis.
While tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are still posted on the border with Ukraine, where are the negotiations?
The negotiations are very intense. In addition to the discussions between Heads of State and Government, contacts between diplomatic advisers are incessant and are not all covered by the media. Contrary to what one might think, relations between the West and Russia have always been abundant, governed by numerous treaties and animated by meetings, inspections, etc. Do not believe that the situation is frozen. On the contrary, I would say that the situation is very fluctuating and that everything is possible. What is blocked is that at the top of the States, no one has yet said what he was ready to let go.
The Kremlin has demanded that the United States and NATO agree in writing to reject Ukraine’s membership of NATO. Can the United States accede to this request?
The United States firmly refused because more than non-membership of NATO, Russia wishes to completely neutralize Ukraine. And that would have huge implications. In the Kremlin’s idea, this would mean that there would be no more partnership between Ukraine and NATO, no more military exercises in Ukraine, and that the United States could never again sell arms to Ukraine.
Indeed, the Kremlin does not believe in the fiction of an over-armed Ukraine which would not be a member of NATO while having all its attributes. In the eyes of Russia, Ukraine should therefore stop pursuing its “NATO” approach that began several years ago and stop its rearmament, which aims to enable it to meet the criteria for joining the alliance. The Kremlin wants a neutral Ukraine, but how far? That’s the whole question.
What are the levers to resolve the crisis?
There are several secondary negotiating points that could shake things up. For example, the resumption of discussions on intermediate nuclear forces is promising. They had been interrupted, Americans and Russians accusing each other of not respecting the rules. There is also the issue of missiles. The Americans have installed two anti-missile systems in Romania and Poland, supposedly to stop Iranian missiles. This was perceived by the Russians as a hostile act, with good reason in my opinion, and the Americans could come back to it.
All these subjects were described as secondary but interesting by Sergei Lavrov, the head of Russian diplomacy. Indeed, from the moment the United States promises never to deploy missiles in Ukraine, the “NATO” of the country becomes much less threatening from the Kremlin’s point of view.
Emmanuel Macron is going to Moscow on Monday. What is its purpose ?
Vladimir Poutine came to France twice, to Versailles in 2017 and to Brégançon in 2019. It was Emmanuel Macron’s turn to go to Russia. Its primary goal is for Europe to exist in the diplomatic game and, incidentally, for France to be on the front line. France’s advantage is not to depend on Russian gas, unlike Germany which gave up nuclear power and opened the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. France’s other objective is to keep the four-party negotiations alive ( France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine) on the future of Donbass. Kiev and Moscow have shown themselves inclined to move forward on the application of the Minsk agreements, a negotiation that has been dragging on since 2014.
What are the French assets allowing Emmanuel Macron to negotiate?
France is at the forefront of European sanctions against Russia. France also enjoys diplomatic prestige and a reputation as a “loudmouth” on the international scene. Moreover, let’s not forget that France is a very attractive country for the Russian elite who come to spend all their holidays there. Vladimir Putin would himself own several houses in France under nominees. France is a real cultural hub for the Russian nomenklatura and I don’t think it’s ready to do without it.
Basically, what does Vladimir Putin really want?
It is often said that Russia wants to create a protective glacis around itself. I think it goes beyond that. Russia wants to attract all Russian-speaking population pools. The Kremlin cannot bear that the populations it considers to be Russian (in Ukraine, in Belarus, in the Baltic countries, etc.) move away from Russia.
It’s something almost sentimental. The Kremlin gives the appearance of rationality but the truth is that its policy is dictated by feelings of nostalgia for the USSR and pan-Slavism.
China has given its support to Russia on the issue of NATO expansion. What should we think of it?
In my opinion, it is an agreement of circumstances. In the long term, China is Russia’s main concern. These two countries have colliding geopolitical views. Vladivostok, in the far east of Russia, is a territory that was Chinese two centuries ago. China could very well do with Vladivostok what Russia did with Crimea. And militarily, Russia does not measure up.