IThailand’s opposition leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, on Monday claimed victory for the progressive Move Forward party, en route to forming a coalition government to succeed generals in power for nearly a decade.
“I am Pita Limjaroenrat, the next Prime Minister of Thailand,” the 42-year-old candidate introduced himself at a press conference in Bangkok.
Associated with the color orange, Move Forward achieved a historic breakthrough in Sunday’s legislative elections, with a reformist program in line with the massive demonstrations of 2020, which demanded an overhaul of the monarchy .
“It was the right time, people suffered too much. […] Today is a new day, and I hope it will bring sunshine and hope”, launched, in English, this telegenic figure, a Harvard graduate.
But its positions deemed radical, from the reform of the controversial article on the crime of lèse-majesté to the end of compulsory conscription, risk creating friction with the military-royalist elite which retains influence within the institutions.
Driven by record participation, around 75%, Move Forward gleans a total of 151 seats out of 500, according to the latest estimates, ahead of Pheu Thai (141 deputies), the other opposition force.
The United Thai Nation (UTN) party, led by outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, sails far behind, with only 36 elected, to a fifth position which sounds like a scathing disavowal after nine years in power, following of the 2014 coup, marked by a sluggish economic recovery and the decline of fundamental freedoms.
An alliance between six parties
The complex electoral rules, concocted by the army to its advantage, force the opposition parties to form a broad coalition to gain power, opening a period of uncertainty which leaves all scenarios on the table.
The recent history of Thailand, which has experienced a dozen coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, is marked by a succession of military and judicial interventions, in the name of respect for institutions… that Move Forward wants to reform.
Pita Limjaroenrat reached out to his Pheu Thai counterpart, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, on the basis of a six-party alliance. The daughter of former prime minister in exile Thaksin Shinawatra responded favorably, paving the way for a majority that would garner just over 300 seats.
The two share the observation of a failing Thai economy that needs reform, but disagree on several social issues, such as the article severely punishing the crime of lèse-majesté, on which Pheu Thai is much more cautious.
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Pita repeated on Monday his promise to break this taboo, which the political parties for a long time did not dare to address. The royal libel law has been hijacked to suppress any dissenting voices, critics say.
Pheu Thai, the most popular party of the past two decades, did not get the “electoral tidal wave” that its star candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra (36) demanded during the campaign.
Winner of 32 of the 33 seats at stake in Bangkok, a score of unexpected magnitude, Move Forward is part of the dynamics of the pro-democracy demonstrations of 2020 which shook the capital before decreasing in intensity under the effect of the pandemic and repression by the authorities.
Pheu Thai, for his part, retains the support of rural areas in the north and north-east, which benefited from the pioneering redistribution policies of Paetongtarn’s father in the early 2000s.
Pro-army system
The opposition needs 376 seats out of the 500 in the National Assembly to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. It is enough for the pro-army camp of 126 deputies to ensure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by the two chambers.
This system, deemed biased by human rights organizations, allowed former General Prayut (69) to stay in power in 2019, at the cost of a broad coalition encompassing around fifteen parties.
His political future seems uncertain after this defeat.
Its record remains tarnished by a difficult recovery from the pandemic, which economists attribute in part to the failing structure of an economy in need of reform.
Human rights groups have accused him of leading a large-scale crackdown on leaders of pro-democracy protests, misusing the lese majesty law for political purposes.