The Federal Council is constantly walking a tightrope with its corona policy. Also this year: The second lockdown is followed by a gradual opening course, which almost leads to a crash in March.
A second, larger opening step is already being considered before the mood in the interior department of SP Federal Councilor Alain Berset (49) returns over the weekend. Due to the abrupt rise in the number of cases, panic is almost spreading, as the documents at hand show. The result: in mid-March, the state government overturned the planned major opening step.
Just a week earlier it sounds very different. In a confidential debate paper dated March 11th to the Federal Council, Berset expects a further increase in the number of cases. On the one hand, he blamed the (British) alpha variant, which was dominant at the time, as well as the increasing contacts after the first opening step in early March.
Parliament complicit in “measure fatigue”
On the other hand, he also blames parliament, where especially the SVP and FDP are campaigning for greater openness. “The effects of any measure fatigue, which are likely to have been boosted by the controversial discussions in Parliament, should be reflected in the number of cases,” he notes.
Nevertheless, the SP magistrate does not want to step on the brakes yet. His interior department is of the opinion “that a second opening step can be envisaged”. This is despite the fact that three of the four guideline values at the time were not met. “Much points to a third wave,” said Berset the next day in front of the media when he gave the cantons a consultation on the opening package. Nevertheless, he maintains the hope of further easing.
There are signs of a change in mood
When he submitted his suggestions to the official consultation shortly afterwards, however, a change in mood was already becoming apparent. The higher case numbers are “worrying” and many point to a third wave of the disease, Berset added as an “express reservation”. A trend reversal may have already occurred. It is therefore unclear whether the second opening step is possible – a waiver of the next opening step or a smaller step is advisable.
The Minister of Health has already warned of the risk that “a normalization of social and economic life is not possible in summer” with an extensive opening step – especially if this would be followed by further opening steps.
But here too: Berset is sticking to the wider opening step for the time being. This includes, for example, the opening of the restaurant terraces, public events with up to 50 people inside or 150 people outside as well as the reopening of leisure facilities, museums and libraries.
Offices want to relax more
In the official consultation, the interior department basically received positive feedback. The thrust of the opening package is supported, with some offices even wanting to go further.
The General Secretariat of SVP Economics Minister Guy Parmelin (61) would like to convert the home office obligation into a recommendation in view of the planned test offensive, as it writes in its statement three days before the decisive Federal Council meeting. 50 instead of 15 people should be able to participate in face-to-face classes at the higher school levels.
The Federal Office for Sport in the Defense Department of Central Federal Councilor Viola Amherd (59) would like additional relaxation in the field of sports – for example outdoor competitions with up to 150 participants. The Federal Office of Culture, which is subordinate to Berset, wants higher upper limits for cultural events – up to 300 people inside and 500 outside.
Even the coordinated medical service, which monitors the occupancy of the hospital beds, assessed the proposed opening step as “in principle sensible and proportionate” – always subject to the epidemiological situation.
Berset applies the brakes
Issues that Berset no longer addresses. In the meantime the wind has turned completely, the tonality continues to tighten. Two days before the Federal Council meeting, the SP man lets see where the journey is going during the Corona debate in the National Council. The government is in a bind, he muses. “The worst thing would be that we would now open and then have to close again.”
The next day, Berset hit the brakes and sent his Gspänli a completely revised application paper. He demands “to forego further openings”. The development of the last few days shows “that a trend reversal has been reached in the pandemic. Switzerland is at the beginning of a third wave. ”
He warns his colleagues that this would be even more important with further relaxation. One reason is the snail’s pace when vaccinating: “The level of vaccination is too low to avoid a sharp increase in hospitalizations and deaths.”
Berset quoted «Nature» magazine
Berset is underpinning his fears with new figures: a significant increase in the number of cases, a high R value of 1.15 and – here he refers to a “Nature” article – the mortality of the British virus variant is 50 percent higher in all age groups.
“It cannot therefore be ruled out that opening up too much could lead to a development similar to that experienced in Ireland or Portugal over the Christmas days over Easter or spring break,” warns Berset.
He also brings new models from the scientific Covid task force into play, which promise great benefits if you wait: “The third wave gets smaller the longer you wait for the next opening step.” With the delay, the inoculation also gains in effect. And he holds out the prospect that “in a few months it could be opened more quickly and more comprehensively”.
Economic arguments too
Berset tries to get the business-friendly skeptics on board with economic arguments. He refers to statements made by the KOF economic research institute at ETH Zurich, according to which easing measures are only to be welcomed from an economic perspective if they do not lead to renewed closings.
“However, from the EDI’s point of view, renewed closings cannot be ruled out if further openings are made in the current fragile situation,” the paper says.
Too great a risk
It is clear to Berset that the opening package must not be put together yet. “The risk of an uncontrolled increase in the number of cases, hospitalizations and later deaths is too great in the current situation,” he concludes. If the development could no longer be controlled, the Federal Council would also fail to achieve its goal of not having to make any further closings.
In the end, Berset prevailed in the Federal Council. He admits a single sugar to the loosening camp: private meetings with family and friends are allowed inside with ten instead of five people.
The next big opening step, however, has to wait. And rightly so, as the development shows: the daily number of cases will rise to just under 2,800 by mid-April, after which the wave will slowly ebb. Berset can thus prevent a wave of horrors like the one in autumn 2020 with over 10,000 cases.