The drift has already started, it is likely to get worse. This could be summarized by the new “climate report” published on Tuesday, October 17, by the Caisse centrale de réassurance (CCR), the public reinsurer responsible for managing the compensation scheme for natural disasters, on the consequences of climate change for this type. of events by 2050. In the worst case, the bill for the Cat Nat regime could in fact increase by 60% in less than thirty years.
The natural disaster regime ensures, thanks to the financial guarantee of the State, compensation for damage due to floods, geotechnical drought (also called shrinkage-swelling of clays), earthquakes, marine submersion and cyclones.
In collaboration with Météo France, the CCR simulated the impact of the main scenarios for the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on three of these perils: flooding by overflow and runoff, marine flooding and geotechnical drought.
Floods, submergence, drought
The first scenario, called “RCP 4.5”, assumes an increase contained to 1.5°C in the average temperature in France in 2050 compared to 2000, therefore compatible with the objectives of the Paris agreement concluded in 2015 in the outcome of COP21. The second, called “RCP 8.5”, is more pessimistic and includes a continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions at the current rate, with the main consequence being a 1.9°C increase in temperature.
Unsurprisingly, whatever scenario is chosen, the increasing intensity of climatic events will result in an inflation of damages. And this trend will be amplified by the increase in population and urban density, with an increase of 19% in the number of insured properties and 12% in their overall value.
Taking the RCP 4.5 scenario as a median hypothesis, the increase in claims should be around 4% due to the climate alone, and it would reach 6% taking into account changes in the insured scope.
In detail, based on an intermediate scenario, the average cost of flooding should increase by a total of 38% by 2050, or by 370 million euros per year, that of marine submersions by 112% (+ 76 million euros per year). And, above all, that of geotechnical drought should more than double (+ 103%), which would correspond to an increase of 747 million euros each year.
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