In real estate, one crisis can hide another. If the housing slump leads to its share of bankruptcies of developers, notaries or property dealers, the situation appears just as worrying on the office side, the other side of the market. A sign of the times, the International Market for Real Estate Professionals, the high mass of real estate which is being held in Cannes (Alpes-Maritimes) from March 12 to 15, promises to be more driven by doubt than by cocktails and evenings on yachts. Because if part of the profession swears that the recovery will come as soon as the European Central Bank begins to lower its rates, discordant voices promise ” blood and tears “ for some time yet.
In 2023, the corporate real estate market has plunged in France. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, investments in offices, hotels and warehouses totaled around 14 billion euros, compared to around 28-29 billion euros per year between 2020 and 2022. The rental market, “driven by the growth and dynamism of businesses”he holds, notes Grégoire de la Ferté, general manager of CBRE, a real estate consulting group. But not everywhere: the migration of businesses that began after the Covid-19 crisis towards the centers of metropolises – this is valid for Paris and other large French and European cities – continues, emptying plateaus on the outskirts of cities. A phenomenon of communicating vessels.
As with housing, the office crisis has its roots in the sudden rise in interest rates that began in 2022. In a sector where debt constitutes a raw material in the same way as concrete, a number of operations concluded at the blessed time free money is no longer profitable when interest rates rise from zero to 4.5%. But to this financial slippage is added another phenomenon, that of the evolution of work. “The real subject is not so much the key rates, their rise, their fall, as the fact that office needs have changed,” analyzes Raphaël Tréguier, the president of Kareg IM, a company that works on the transformation of office buildings.
Compared to the turbulence of 1991 and 2008, “We are closer to the crisis of 1991, when there was oversupply. But, at the time, the excess capacity ended up being absorbed, because there was a need for offices. There, we produced a lot in 2018 and 2019, but the Covid-19 pandemic arrived and the needs changed.” “At the end of 2023, 4.76 million square meters were free in Ile-de-France. Some say that it is even underestimated, and speak of 15 million square meters, out of 50 million square meters in the region. Companies have empty offices, but do not communicate about them”agrees Stéphan de Faÿ, the general director of Grand Paris Aménagement.
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