The Delta variant of the coronavirus, initially detected in India and responsible in particular for a rebound in contamination in the United Kingdom, remains very “Minority” in France, but is in “Increase” in surveillance data, communicated Friday, June 18, Public Health France during its weekly update. This variant was found in 1% of samples during a sequencing “flash survey” carried out on May 25, compared with 0.2% in the previous survey, on May 11.
The health agency says it follows this “Increasing diffusion” of the Delta variant with “The greatest care, given its increased transmissibility (…), a possible increase in the severity of the infection and preliminary data in favor of a slightly reduced vaccine efficacy, especially during an incomplete vaccination schedule “.
“On the national territory, the epidemic is in decline, it is being controlled”, welcomed the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, Thursday, the day of the end of the obligation to wear a mask outdoors. Contaminations are in sharp decline: 2,439 new cases between Thursday and Friday, against more than 15,000 daily cases a month ago. As for hospitals, the pressure of the epidemic continues to decrease, with less than 12,000 patients with Covid-19 hospitalized on Friday, including 1,740 in critical care services.
The Alpha variant remains predominant
According to Public Health France (SPF), the Alpha variant (known as British) confirms, for the moment, its “Predominance”, with 86.3% of the 1,723 samples sequenced during the “flash survey”, against 5.6% for the Beta variant (known as South African), 1.1% for the Gamma variant (known as Brazilian) and 1 % for the Delta variant. Preliminary results from the flash survey, released last Friday, indicated 88% Alpha variant and 0.5% Delta variant.
Another means of monitoring variants, the screening data of the positive PCR tests no longer lists the variants as such for a few days, but three “Mutations of interest”. These data show that the L452R mutation, which appears in the Delta variant, is found in 4.6% of the results. Other variants are also carriers of this mutation, but “A large majority, probably at least two thirds, are of the Delta variant”, underlined Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin, from the infectious diseases department of SPF.
It is on this estimate that the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, was based to declare Tuesday that“Currently, in France, 2% to 4% of the positive tests that we screen correspond to the Indian variant”. Those data “Should be interpreted with caution due to the gradual ramp-up of the new screening strategy put in place since May 31”, specifies SPF. Last week, only 37.5% of positive tests had been screened, not all laboratories being equipped with the necessary new kits yet.
In the United Kingdom, the Delta variant spread rapidly, replacing the Alpha variant in a few weeks, which appeared at the end of 2020 in the south-east of England. In view of the evidence that he has “Greater competitiveness” than the Alpha variant, “We can expect its prevalence to increase in the weeks and months to come” in France, judged Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin. But “The temporality and the impact on the epidemic dynamics are not yet predictable”.
The number of deaths down since the beginning of May
The average number of deaths observed every day in France, all causes combined, has been declining since the beginning of May, after a peak in January, then a stagnation since mid-March, according to the weekly death toll during the Covid epidemic from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), published Friday. While 2,150 deaths were recorded daily on average in January, then 2,040 in February and just under 1,900 in March and April, this number fell to 1,740 deaths per day during the first half of May, then to just over 1,600 during the period from May 16 to June 7.
From 1er January to June 7, 301,263 deaths were recorded in France, or 8% more than for the same period of 2019, a year without Covid but with a virulent seasonal flu. The figure is almost stable (+ 1%) compared to 2020, the year of the outbreak of the pandemic. The excess of deaths compared to 2019 is greater in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (+ 15%), in Hauts-de-France (+ 13%), and in Ile-de-France (+ 11 %).
If we compare the deaths of 2021 to those of two years ago, we see that their number increases only for the age groups of 65 years and over: + 13% for the 65-74 years old, as for the 75-84 year olds. For those over 85, the excess of deaths compared to 2019 is only 7% of the 1er January to June 7. This can be explained by the effect of the vaccination against the Covid – of which the oldest were the first beneficiaries.