Ihe situation in Russia is changing rapidly: the popularity of the war and of Putin’s policies is decreasing, concern and disillusionment are increasing, as well as a demand from part of Russian society for a way out of the current situation, perceived as a historical impasse. All of this is happening against a backdrop of general economic recession and Western sanctions, and at a time when the threat of military defeat is becoming increasingly evident.
All these processes were radically exacerbated during the dramatic hours of the Prigozhin rebellion, which shook the people’s basic ideas about the stability of the state. Aspirations to end the war and secure democratic transformation may be seen by many Russians as the only positive way out of the growing political and socio-economic crisis.
We insist: at this stage, the democratic opposition must unite its efforts to incite the Russians to end the war and move on to a democratic reconstruction of the country. We believe that if Russian societal support for the ruling power drops to a critical level, it may deepen the rift within the elites and create a chance to bring about bloodless government transformation.
Political, educational and human rights work
But some members of the opposition today have a different point of view. They believe that regime change in Russia must continue through violent means, including deliberately inciting the Russians to use force and encouraging any armed attempt to destabilize the country. These two points of view are not reconcilable at the present time.
We declare that public calls for a change of power by arms are categorically unacceptable to the vast majority of organizations that have supporters in Russia and carry out genuine political, educational and human rights work there.
We fear that the main consequence of making such appeals is to cut off the democratic opposition abroad from broad public support in Russia. The voice of the remaining politicians, civic activists and human rights defenders inside the country – and therefore their supporters – will be almost inaudible.
With the countries of the anti-Putin coalition and international institutions
Betting on scenarios of change of power by arms will inevitably lead to a freezing of the work done for a fundamental change of society towards democracy and respect for human rights. The vast majority of Russians will not be able to participate in joint actions aimed at transforming society and moving it towards a more democratic direction.
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