The fact that China is flexing its muscles with Taiwan, Russia is marching on the Ukrainian border and Iran is unwilling to give in on the nuclear issue, indicates that they are all exploiting the weakness of the world hegemon USA: no longer always and everywhere present with military means of power to be able to.
The US aircraft carrier “Abraham Lincoln” in the naval port of San Diego, 2021.
During the Cold War, Europe was the US top strategic priority. East Asia was mostly a sideline, although the United States fought bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam and also ensured the security of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
But with the looming new cold war between the US and China, America’s strategic priorities have shifted. US security strategy is now dominated by the threat from China, and East Asia has overtaken Europe as the main arena of the world’s most important geopolitical competition. The security implications of this shift in American priorities are becoming increasingly evident.
Refusals and threats
America’s adversaries are taking advantage of China’s primary focus to test the United States’s resolve. For example, Iran has taken a tougher pace in the stalled negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the 2015 nuclear deal from which US President Donald Trump’s administration withdrew in 2018. The Iranian leadership appears to be betting that US President Joe Biden will be extremely reluctant to resort to military means and embroil himself in a new war in the Middle East while the US prepares for a possible conflict with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
As the US makes it increasingly clear to its European allies that they consider the region to be a subordinate priority, Europe will have to translate noble words into deeds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current military threats against Ukraine appear to be based on similar considerations. Putin believes he now has much more leeway to restore Russia’s influence in his immediate neighborhood because the US can hardly afford to be diverted from its strategic focus on China.
The recent moves by Iran and Russia illustrate the US strategic dilemma. To increase the likelihood that its cold war against China will turn out favorably, the US must maintain strategic discipline and steer clear of secondary conflicts that could bind its attention and resources. Biden’s abrupt – and botched – withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 underscores his government’s commitment in this regard.
The Middle East without security guarantees
It remains to be seen how America’s clashes with Iran and Russia will end, but what is certain is that sooner or later the United States will be tested in a similar way elsewhere. Some regional powers are likely to be tempted to harass their weaker neighbors because they believe that the US move to East Asia will make American military intervention much less likely.
Of course, America’s focus on China will have different effects in different regions, with the regional security effects much less in Latin America and Africa than in the Middle East. In Latin America and Africa, US policy in the coming years is likely to focus on economic, technological, and diplomatic competition with China. The losers will be those countries in which China has little interest or influence.
The greatest security effects of the US strategic relocation to East Asia will be felt in the Middle East, the region that is most dependent on America for its security needs. In all likelihood, China’s strategic focus will dramatically weaken America’s role as the region’s police officer. Although the US will continue to provide arms and aid to its key allies and partners, the Middle East as a whole will have to do without the US as a guarantor of security.
No more wasting resources
More broadly, the US will inevitably lose significant geopolitical influence if it continues to focus its strategic focus on China. Countries that no longer benefit from America’s generosity will understandably feel less indebted to the United States.
But the weakening of US global influence could also bring significant benefits – for both the US and the rest of the world. Strategic discipline would make it difficult for the US to wage unnecessary wars. The downside of American unipolarity for much of the post-Cold War era has been America’s ruthless use of military force. According to the American Congressional Research Service, the US has been in the three decades since the end of the Cold War their armed forces abroad every year used. In the two great wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in particular, immense numbers of human lives were sacrificed and valuable resources squandered.
Elsewhere, countries that previously counted on the protection and support of the US are now being forced to fend for themselves through its new strategic direction. Some Middle Eastern countries have made efforts to rebuild relations and promote peace in preparation for the American withdrawal: for example, relations between some Gulf states and Israel have improved dramatically in recent years.
And Europe?
In Europe, “strategic autonomy” may initially only be noble words. However, as the US makes it increasingly clear to its European allies that they consider the region to be a subordinate priority, Europe will have to turn words into deeds.
Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright once declared that the US was the “indispensable nation” of the world. This term applied most of the time after the Cold War. Yet in the age of the US-China Cold War, America may be the indispensable power for East Asia, but not for other regions. As this new reality takes hold, the rest of the world will have no choice but to adjust. That could lead to more military conflicts or more peace.
Minxin Pei is Professor of Political Science at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident Senior Fellow with the United States’ German Marshall Fund. – Translated from the English by Helga Klinger-Groier. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.