So far, everything is better, but the headwinds are more threatening. This is, in substance, the analysis carried out by the European Commission of the current economic situation and which it delivers in its latest forecasts, published on Thursday 11 November.
Everything is better, it is undeniable. The recovery, after the Covid-19 pandemic which plunged the world into an unprecedented recession, is stronger than expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to jump 5% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022, both within the European Union (EU) and the euro area. For 2023, growth should reach 2.5% in the first case and 2.4% in the second. With the lifting of the restriction measures, consumers have drawn on the savings they had accumulated over the lockdowns and largely fueled growth. In this context, from this summer, the European economy returned to its pre-crisis level.
This improvement is set to last, predict the economists of the Commission. Consumers should indeed continue to dissavate, the European recovery plan of 750 billion euros whose funds have started to arrive in the coffers of the Twenty-seven should make its effects felt, while the decline in unemployment will fuel this growth. , largely driven by domestic demand. Moreover, in the second quarter, Europe created 1.5 million jobs. And within the eurozone, the unemployment rate is expected to drop from 7.9% this year to 7.5% in 2022 and 7.3% in 2023, according to commission experts.
Inflation declines in 2022
Several shadows seriously threaten this scenario, warn the economists of the community executive. The main one remains the pandemic, first and foremost, which continues to circulate and has experienced a marked upturn in recent weeks. Admittedly, 75% of the adult European population is vaccinated, but in some countries, such as Bulgaria (where the vaccination rate is 21%) or Romania (30%), only a small part of the populations are immunized. Therefore, we cannot exclude the return of restrictions. In addition, the risks of a new wave with devastating consequences in other parts of the world, especially in certain emerging countries where vaccination campaigns are still in their infancy, are real and would not be without consequences for the Old Continent.
Against this backdrop, shortages of components and other materials plaguing the world, after months in which factories were shut down by the pandemic, could last longer than expected. And fuel the current inflationary pressures, which stem mainly from industrial bottlenecks and rising energy prices. Annual inflation in the euro area, which was negative in the last quarter of 2020 (- 0.3%), rose to 4.1% in October. For the time being, the Commission forecasts that it will settle down next year, after a peak of 2.4% in 2021, to reach 2.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023, within the eurozone.
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