Caught in the shocks of geopolitics and global warming, maritime routes are encountering major disruptions. In just a few months, traffic has been disrupted on two crucial routes for global commerce.
The Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and through which 5% of world maritime trade passes, saw its traffic decrease by 30% due to an unprecedented drought which reduced the water level in the locks. Ships connecting China to the eastern seaboard of the American continent must wait several weeks, pay millions of dollars to acquire a right of passage or unload their goods so that they can be transported by land.
At the other end of the planet, the strategic axis linking Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea has lost 40% of its traffic since December 2023, in the wake of the Israeli offensive in Gaza. The Yemeni Houthis, supported by Tehran, who say they are acting “in solidarity” with the Palestinians, are increasing attacks on ships around the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Although the number of incidents has decreased since the end of January, the threat remains high, as do insurance premiums. Many ships now prefer to sail along Africa, passing through the Cape of Good Hope, which increases transport times and costs.
Cereal trade disrupted
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, interruptions to maritime traffic in the Black Sea have turned upside down world grain trade. Egypt, whose imports of Ukrainian wheat fell by 81% during the first eight months of the conflict, had to obtain catastrophic supplies from Russia, the United States and the European Union. Ethiopia, for its part, turned to Argentina and the United States.
GEOPOLITICAL CRISES BRUTALLY DISRUPT TRAFFIC
Acts of piracy between 2023 and 2024
CLIMATE CHANGE LASTLY AFFECTS TRADITIONAL ROADS
Port among the most vulnerable to climate change
Area affected by extreme climatic events
80% of GOODS TRADE IN THE WORLD depend on maritime traffic
Panama Canal
Hit by drought
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Gibraltar
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Bosphorus Strait
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
The black Sea
Under Russian blockade and Turkish control
Suez Canal
Weak link in world trade
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Strait of Bad Al-Mandab
Under fire from the Houthis
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Cape of good hope
An expensive substitute for the Suez Canal
Since the attacks by the Yemeni Houthis in the Red Sea, many shipowners have opted to bypass Africa, despite the increase in costs and delays. This detour leads to a reduction in services to Mediterranean ports.
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Gulf of Guinea
Pirate Lair
The most dangerous maritime zone in the world, it concentrates 90% of sailor kidnappings. Although this region is not crossed by a major trade route, pirates are now capable of attacking on the high seas, complicating surveillance and rescue operations.
Strait of Hormuz
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Strait of Malacca
A ship every eight minutes
An obligatory passage between Asia and Europe, it is the second most used strait, after that of Hormuz for the transport of oil. A ship passes there every eight minutes, despite the high risk of piracy. With the rise in tensions in the China Sea, bypass routes are being studied, such as the drilling of a canal in the Kra Isthmus, in Thailand, or the creation of a land corridor via Burma. Projects which are not unanimous among the States concerned.
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Taiwan Strait
Coveted by Beijing
China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, is increasing its intimidation actions around the island, at the risk of disrupting traffic on this strategic route through which 48% of the world’s container ships transit in 2022. The circumvention of the strait would push ships toward typhoon-affected Philippine waters.
Strategic passage
Number of visits per month
Ports of South-East China
In the eye of the storm
Port infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to the risks of storms and flooding, amplified by global warming. In the summer of 2023, Typhoon Doksuri hit China, causing the worst flooding in half a century in Beijing, and forcing major ports in the southeast of the country to refuse dozens of ships, causing disruption. global logistics chains.
The Arctic
The emergence of a polar route
Melting ice could clear this route and shorten journeys between Europe and Asia. A perspective that is still distant, due among other things to the lack of port infrastructure for large tonnage ships. This route, open part of the year, is also only accessible to certain ships equipped for extreme conditions, or escorted by Russian icebreakers.
The concern is such that Brussels revised its strategy in October 2023For “maintain stability and security along major maritime routes”. In addition to wars, the increase in drug trafficking increases the risk of ships being detained in the event of inspection. Piracy, which is picking up again in the Indian Ocean, thanks to the departure for the Red Sea of the naval forces of the coalition led by Washington, represents an additional threat. “Attacks, most probably linked to illegal fishing disputes, have resumed off the coast of Somalia and in the Indian Ocean since November 2023, points out Louis Borer, maritime security analyst at Risk Intelligence. More ambitious attacks on the high seas have also been reported – notably in the Gulf of Guinea, a global piracy hotspot, with violent, complex, sometimes long-range attacks. »
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