How high the burden of the measures taken during the pandemic has been little researched so far. A study by the University of Basel now shows that the Swiss would prefer to live less or earn less if they could do without measures.
During the pandemic, playgrounds in front of school buildings were provided with barrier tape.
All measures taken by the Swiss government to combat the pandemic have now expired; the last to be compulsory masks in public transport at the end of March. According to an SRF survey in mid-February, 24 percent of those surveyed thought the extent and pace of the easing of corona protection measures was far too slow – twice as many as those who considered them far too hasty. 9 percent of those surveyed took part in a protest against corona measures at least once in the last two years.
In our own survey, we wanted to find out how the Swiss population rates the quality of life with strict corona measures in relation to their normal quality of life. On average very low – with their answers to questions about timing, the almost 1200 representative selected revealed that on average 12 months with strict restrictions bring them only as much benefit as 4.8 months of normal life.
This loss of subjective quality of life is massive and means that, if in doubt, the average Swiss woman would rather live a little more than four years of her normal life than ten years with strict Corona regulations. There were only minor differences in this assessment between German, French and Italian-speaking Switzerland, and men and women also discounted the quality of life similarly between 55 and 65 percent due to strict corona measures.
Lower willingness to pay in Ticino
In order to find out more precisely how the respondents feel about the individual measures, we carried out so-called selection experiments. We asked them the following question: Imagine you had to choose between two countries that differ in terms of the salary you earn and the following things: compulsory masks in all public spaces, access to restaurants, clubs or gyms , ban on private parties and events, school closures and travel ban. The questions were deliberately asked in such a way that each individual does not think about Covid, but simply assesses how much individual measures restrict the quality of life.
The results show that the burden of measures is very high: on average, the population would be willing to give over 60 percent of their salary to avoid school closures and to enable private events. That would be 44 percent for bars and restaurants, 22 percent for sports, and only about 10 percent for masks. The results are similar for German- and French-speaking Switzerland, in Ticino the average willingness to pay is lower and only exceeds 40 percent of the annual salary when schools are closed.
The University of Oxford publishes an index of the strength of the measures taken in each country during the pandemic. Since the start, Switzerland has experienced 41 days with severe (Oxford Stringency Index >70), 392 days with moderate (50-70) and 295 days with mild (20-50) restrictions. If we weight the days with strong restrictions according to the survey with a benefit deduction of 0.6, and the days with medium and light restrictions with a benefit of 0.4 and 0.2, respectively, the Swiss population has in the past two years because of the Corona -measures lost a total of 5.63 million quality-adjusted life years, or 7.9 months per capita.
Loss of 96 000 years of life
So far, around 13,000 people have died with or from Covid-19 in Switzerland. If we take into account the remaining life expectancy of those who died prematurely, the loss due to the pandemic amounts to around 96,000 years of life. The ratio of losses in quality of life and quality of life is 58 to 1.
We do not know how many deaths have been avoided as a result of the corona measures. International studies estimate that between 0.6 and 1 percent of the population would die of Covid-19 without measures. With an average life expectancy of 7.5 years, that would be around 640,000 years of life for 1 percent of the population.
Putting all the other effects and costs aside – the overburdening of the healthcare system, the massive economic costs and, of course, the massive vaccination efforts – this means, put simply, that at a cost of over 5.5 million life years, around 550,000 life years were saved. The Swiss Epidemics Act requires the Federal Council to periodically review the effectiveness, usefulness and cost-effectiveness of the measures (Art. 81).
When assessing medical measures, it is an international standard to consider their effect not only on mortality but also on the quality of life of those affected. According to our survey, the Swiss population finds the corona measures very stressful and is very willing to pay to avoid them, especially when it comes to closing schools and bars.
These costs and burdens are massive and should be taken into consideration by the Federal Council when it comes to combating the spread of infectious diseases through measures that can severely impair the quality of life of the general population – perhaps again in autumn.
Günther Fink is Professor of Epidemiology and Household Economics, Stefan Felder is Professor of Health Economics, both at the University of Basel.