The end of the tariff shield is understood on the side of Bercy. The measure is set to disappear in 2024 to restore public finances. However, while Emmanuel Macron announced the return of the fuel bonus, an increase in the regulatory price of electricity in February could bring back the exceptional energy check for 12 million households.
The government had announced it, but this time, the 2024 budget confirms the end of the tariff shield on electricity after that on gas last July. In the heart of winter 2021, this device had limited the increase to 4%. Last February, the increase was limited to 15% when the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) recommended 99%!
Clearly, this decision made by the 2024 budget means that the regulated electricity price should increase in February 2024 then, again, in August of the same year for 23 million customers. For what? Because by schematizing, the shield was based on the principle that the State waived part of the taxes levied on energy. An amount which allows the rating to be lowered by 37% according to estimates from the Minister of Energy Transition.
In total, 10 of the 16 billion euros in savings in the 2024 budget will come from the gradual extinction of this system. So what can EDF customers expect from the blue tariff or those who have index contracts on it? Market volatility calls for caution.
10% maximum at the start of 2024
However, in mid-September, respecting the CRE calculation rule, its president Emmanuelle Wargon estimated the February increase at 10%. The theoretical calculation that the CRE will propose to the government could result in a change whose order of magnitude would be 10% maximum at the start of 2024, in current market conditions, before possible application of a tariff shield.
The return of the exceptional energy check?
The final decision will be made by the government: in February, the increase will not be greater than 10%, replied in substance, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire. What will happen in August of the same year since the regulated price changes twice a year? At the same time, the opposition is calling for a complete price freeze (La France insoumise) or a conference on energy prices (Les Républicains).
Samuel AUFFRAY
After studying political science in Paris 2 and journalism at the CFJ, Samuel Auffray worked for L’Obs in the field of… Read more
MoneyVox / SA / September 2023